Tamil Nadu polls: BJP looks for toehold as Dravidian parties sweat it out

The battle for Tamil Nadu’s 234 assembly seats is turning into a soap opera with VK Sasikala’s theatrical return after her prison term to her dramatic retreat from politics and the DMDK walking out on the AIADMK. With a tough contest between AIADMK and DMK in the offing, the absence of leading figures like J Jayalalithaa and M Karunanidhi is palpable. While the DMK looks to have an edge over AIADMK, analysts warn not to underestimate the goodwill that chief minister Edappadi K Palaniswami enjoys, especially his handling of Covid-19 and his industry-friendly image. Dia Rekhi & KR Balasubramanyam report:

Caste-based vote-banks
The Karur to Krishnagiri region is dominated by the Vanniyar and Gounder communities where both the chief minister, a Gounder himself, and Ramadoss’s PMK have their own following. Sasikala’s nephew TTV Dhinakaran’s AMMK banks on the Thevars. Chennai and its surrounding areas like Chengalpattu, Kanchipuram and Thiruvallur have generally been DMK strongholds.

Analysts say that if you add DMK’s core vote-bank plus the minority votes, it comes to about 15%. A proportion of Dalit votes and the traditional Congress votes of about 5% could take this to around 40%. So, in the fight with DMK, the AIADMK needs to muster all the remaining votes to compete as the BJP’s vote-share was only about 3-4%; PMK had about 5%; and AIADMK about 25% –– this comes to about 37-38%, analysts said, going by previous election data.

Small is big
While AIADMK has a three-party alliance with the BJP and PMK, the DMK has managed an eight-party alliance with Congress, VCK, CPI, CPM, IUML, KMDK and others. Their success is critical for MK Stalin to wrest power after 10 years. Smaller parties survive either due to community-based vote-banks like PMK (Vanniyar) and AMMK (Thevar) or region-specific votes like MDMK (central Tamil Nadu).

AIADMK is contesting 177 seats while DMK is fielding its nominees in 173 seats and another 14 from a partner under its symbol. The elections are seen as a direct fight between Palaniswami, a four-time MLA, and Stalin, a six-term MLA. AIADMK seemingly has a lot to lose with the coming together of AMMK and actor Vijayakanth’s DMDK. While DMK, which is upbeat after its stellar performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections when its alliance won 38 of the 39 seats, AIADMK has a lot to lose as it came across as inflexible during negotiations. This could scatter votes that would have otherwise come to the AIADMK combine. With a third front headed by Kamal Haasan’s MNM along with AISMK and IJK, votes are expected to get divided making it a close fight between the two Dravidian parties.

CAA, Jaya's death
While the DMK has opposed the Citizenship Amendment Act from the beginning, the AIADMK has shifted its position saying it will urge the Centre to drop the law. The biggest headwind for AIADMK is a possible anti-incumbency in parts of the state. Stalin’s barbs at AIADMK include the promise that he will speed up the probe into the circumstances that led to Jayalalithaa’s death. DMK’s rivals say the party is perpetuating the dynastic politics with MK Stalin inheriting the party chief’s post from his father.

BJP & Congress
Tamil Nadu has not been particularly welcoming to the BJP. The party hopes to field well-known faces and then go the whole hog in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. This explains the strategy to field actor Khushbu from Thousand Lights in Chennai. Several other top BJP leaders are contesting from the 20 seats which the party’s ally AIADMK has conceded. BJP is said to have done some backdoor manoeuvering to save AIADMK from breaking into factions after Jayalalitha’s death. The DMK combine losing power narrowly in 2016 is blamed on Congress’ poor performance. This election, the Congress is contesting from 25 seats and hopes to make a splash.