“As one of the first market entrants, with proprietary technology, verticallyintegrated operations, and plans for a consumer-oriented experience leveraging the Virgin brand, [Galactic] is uniquely positioned to capture share in the emerging…..industry,” wrote Ciarmoli in a Wednesday report.

He sees Galactic capturing up to 50% of the space tourism market share, which could yield roughly $1 billion in Galactic sales by 2030. That can turn into $375 million in free cash, according to the analyst, which underpins his stock valuation. What’s more, Ciarmoli sees several catalysts moving shares higher in 2021, including successful test flights and the commencement of commercial operations.

At $50 a share, Virgin Galactic would be valued at roughly $12 billion. That’s the most bullish valuation on Wall Street. The average analyst price target is about $39 a share. Half of the 10 analysts covering the company rate shares Buy. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is about 60%.

Back in September 2020, six out of six analysts rated shares Buy. Since then, the stock has done well, rising about 100%, far better than the comparable gain of the S&P 500.

Price appreciation appears to be the main reason some analysts have downgraded Galactic shares from Buy to Hold. None of the 10 analysts covering the stock rate shares Sell.

Galactic stock ended Wednesday’s session about 3.8% higher at nearly $34, stretching year-to-date gains to about 42%.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com