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Commonwealth Bank of Australia became the nation's first major lender to offer its own "buy now, pay later" service on Wednesday, taking on U.S. giant PayPal Inc and local heavyweight Afterpay Ltd with the promise of lower fees. Australia's so-called Big Four banks have acknowledged the rising popularity of BNPL which was worth A$5.6 billion ($4.3 billion) domestically in 2019, but none had so far entered the space with their own service. The CBA launch is planned for mid-2021, coinciding with the entry of PayPal into an Australian market where BNPL regulation is thin and adoption is high.
Gold prices edged up on Wednesday to hover near their highest in more than two weeks on prospects of higher inflation, although trade was range-bound as investors exercised caution ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting outcome. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $1,736.42 per ounce by 0455 GMT, having earlier touched a level unseen since March 1 at $1,740.90. "Gold appears to be finding few friends finally even as U.S. yields and the dollar continue to grind higher ... perhaps gold's inflation hedging role is quietly returning to prominence and that is supporting prices," said OANDA senior market analyst Jeffrey Halley.
Oil prices were mixed on Wednesday as concerns over rocky demand in Europe counterbalanced hopes of a recovery in U.S. refinery activity as industry data showed U.S. crude stockpiles unexpectedly fell last week. "Demand fears based on the stalled European vaccine roll out is containing an otherwise positive environment," said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney. Brent crude futures fell 7 cents, or 0.1%, to $68.32 a barrel by 0458 GMT, after initially gaining as much as 23 cents.
Japanese households' financial assets hit a fresh record near 2 quadrillion yen last year, half of which was in cash and bank deposits, in a sign the coronavirus pandemic encouraged them to save rather than spend. The balance of financial assets held by households rose 2.9% from a year earlier to a record 1,948 trillion yen ($17.85 trillion) as of the end of December, Bank of Japan data showed on Wednesday. Of the total, 1,056 trillion yen was in cash and deposits, as curbs to prevent the spread of the virus kept consumers at home and away from shops and outdoor activities, the data showed.
(Bloomberg) -- Spiking U.S. Treasury yields just forced the Turkish lira into the sharpest retreat in emerging markets. With a pivotal interest-rate meeting approaching, lira bulls say that’s a reason for optimism.The lira is down more than 8% since mid February and money managers like Paul Greer at Fidelity International are sitting tight for Central Bank Governor Naci Agbal to raise rates and stem the decline, boosting the appeal of one the highest-yielding currencies in the developing world.“As long as the Turkish lira offers a healthy positive ex-ante real policy rate, investors will be attracted by the large nominal carry on offer,” said Greer, who has an overweight stance on the lira. Assuming rates are raised in line with expectations and there’s orderly price action in U.S. Treasuries and emerging markets, “we expect some money to come back into the lira again at current levels,” he said.A currency rally that followed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s shake-up of his economic team last year hit a wall in mid-February, spurring calls for the central bank to backstop the market with higher rates. With inflation coming in faster than expected last month, Agbal is expected to hike the one-week repo rate 100 basis points to 18% on Thursday.Since his appointment, Agbal has lifted the headline rate by 675 basis points, delighting investors with a return to more hawkish policy and helping make the lira the best carry-trade currency this year behind the Russian ruble.Raising rates would give “more evidence that Turkey has changed course and is serious in rebalancing its economy,” said Swedbank’s Hans Gustafson, who sees the lira gaining about 15% to close the year at 6.50 per U.S. dollar.The lira was trading up 0.8% at 7.4780 against the greenback as of 3:45 p.m. in Istanbul on Tuesday.Agbal’s arrival at the central bank in November came after Erdogan sacked his predecessor in a revamp that also saw the resignation of Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak -- the president’s son-in-law. Albayrak had come under fire from opposition parties for mismanaging the economy and the lira roared back almost 25% from its weakest on record as Agbal pledged a return to orthodox policy.Powell’s Challenge: Reconcile Better Outlook, Ultra-Easy PolicyHenrik Gullberg, macro strategist at Coex Partners Ltd, predicts the Turkish currency will eventually return to levels stronger than 6.9 per dollar and said the spike in U.S. yields that’s hurt risk appetite will pass.“The rise in real yields in the U.S. is not sustainable,” Gullberg said. “When it comes to an end, the rally in risk sensitive currencies like the lira will resume.”For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
Bitcoin could be set for a price rally north of $100,000 this summer under Pantera's model.
(Bloomberg) -- It wasn’t just retail traders who cashed in big during the GameStop Corp. stock mania. A legendary billionaire investor made a minor killing shorting the shares.Bill Gross, the erstwhile bond king and co-founder of Pacific Investment Management Co., said in an interview Tuesday on Bloomberg Television that he made about $10 million betting against the video game retailer’s shares.But the trade didn’t go off without a hitch.“I got in too early,” said Gross. “I was in the hole by about $10 million.” But he stuck with it to sell at a profit.GameStop stock, for months among the most heavily shorted on the New York Stock Exchange, surged more than 1,700% from Jan. 1 through Jan. 27 as a legion of Reddit users piled on, forcing bearish traders to scramble for shares and brokers to take the highly unusual step of curbing trading.Amid that mania, Gross took a shot to bet against the shares: “I got in with options like a good Robinhood trader, I guess.”He’s not done yet.“I’m still selling call options at $250 and $300,” said Gross. “I think this is the perfect opportunity for options sellers, not buyers, to take advantage.”Gross was largely known for his bond bets after four decades at Pimco, which he built into one of the world’s largest asset managers. For years he generated industry-leading returns as manager of the Pimco Total Return Fund and in 2013 the firm’s assets approached $2 trillion. He was ousted though a year later after feuding with his Pimco partners over strategy, succession and managerial control.Gross then joined Janus Henderson Group Plc as a money manager, switching his focus from pursuing relative return against a benchmark to an unconstrained strategy. The aim was to achieve positive results no matter the market conditions, but it didn’t work out. Returns were disappointing and Gross retired in March 2019.Gross continues to comment on central bank policy and deficits and speculate in the bond markets with his personal fortune.Read more: Bill Gross says he’s short TreasuriesHe said he was short coming into the Treasuries selloff of recent weeks that took the 10-year yield to a one-year high above 1.6%. He also continues to bet against 10-year futures and the long bond. The investor predicts a jump in inflation ahead that will give Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell “pause” about the central bank’s current lower-for-longer policy.“Inflation, you know, currently below 2% now is not going be below 2% in the next few months,” Gross said. “I see a 3% to 4% number ahead of us.(Updates with Gross views on inflation in last paragraph.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
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Moderna shares gained strong upside momentum in recent trading sessions.
The company's shares were down 16.4% at $184, on track for their worst weekly performance since early February, with a drop of more than 30% since Friday's close. Other so-called meme stocks, popular with online retail traders, declined early in Tuesday's session, with cinema operator AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc down 8.6%, while headphones maker Koss Corp fell 7.1%. GameStop continues to retain a legion of devout followers after a social media frenzy in January triggered a massive rally in which its shares surged more than 1,600%, in a short squeeze that shook hedge funds such as Melvin Capital.
(Bloomberg) -- Production at U.S. manufacturers unexpectedly declined in February, representing a pause in recent momentum as factories were beset by severe winter weather and supply-chain challenges.The 3.1% decrease in output was the first since April and followed an upwardly revised 1.2% gain in January, according to Federal Reserve data Tuesday. That was worse than all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The median forecast called for a 0.2% rise.Excluding the effects of inclement weather, factory production would have fallen about 0.5% in February, the Fed said in a statement.Total industrial production, which also includes mines and utilities, dropped 2.2% in February after an upwardly revised 1.1% increase a month earlier.“We likely will see at least a partial reversal of the February changes in March given expected normalization in the weather and over time we believe industrial production will keep trending higher as the recovery continues,” Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said in a note.Total industrial output reflected a 7.4% surge at utilities. That was the largest advance since March 2017 and driven by increased demand for heating. The bitter cold weather also resulted in blackouts in Texas and disrupted production at refineries.While manufacturers continue to battle supply shortages and shipping challenges, tailwinds for producers include lean business inventories, steady demand from consumers and solid capital spending.The Fed’s index of manufacturing output is 4% below where it was a year ago. The March data will offer a clearer read on the progress of American manufacturing, given other gauges of activity have largely been upbeat. The Institute for Supply Management’s measure rose last month to a three-year high.Auto production slumped 8.3% in February, the largest fall since April and reflecting both a global shortage of semiconductors and the severe weather, reducing overall manufacturing output about 0.5%.Production in the chemical industry dropped 7.1% last month, reflecting petrochemical plant shutdowns along the Gulf Coast.A separate report Tuesday from the Commerce Department showed retail sales were also impacted by winter weather in February, falling 3% after a 7.6% gain in January.Digging DeeperManufacturing capacity utilization dropped 2.3 percentage points to 72.3%, the lowest since September. Total capacity utilization, including factories, mines and utilities, decreased to a four-month low of 73.8%Excluding motor vehicle and parts production, manufacturing output decreased 2.6%Oil and gas well drilling rose 6.4% but remains almost half of its pre-pandemic level(Adds graphic)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- While Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has promised to maintain aggressive support of the U.S. economy, the central bank’s quarterly economic forecasts will show how many of his colleagues share his commitment.The Federal Open Market Committee is all but certain to hold interest rates near zero at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, and repeat a vow to keep buying bonds at the current $120 billion monthly pace. The panel will release a statement and its forecasts at 2 p.m. in Washington and Powell will hold a press briefing 30 minutes later.Expectations of a strong recovery from the Covid-19 slump are putting an intense focus on Fed officials’ projections for interest rates displayed in their “dot plot.” Two-thirds of economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect policy makers to continue to signal no liftoff from near-zero rates through 2023, though more of the 18 central bankers could drift their dots higher. In December, one policy maker predicted a 2022 hike and five saw at least one move by end-2023.“The first thing I and most people will look at is whether we have one rate hike in 2023 -- that is the main risk,” said Thomas Costerg, senior U.S. economist at Pictet Wealth Management. “That would represent an unraveling of the dovish line held by Powell up to now.”New Governor Christopher Waller, a former St. Louis Fed research director and a likely policy dove, has joined the committee since the release of its December Summary of Economic Projections.Here are some of the things to watch out for in the FOMC statement and Powell press conference on Wednesday:Upgraded ForecastsU.S. Treasury yields have risen in the past month as the economic outlook has improved. Private forecasters have sharply upgraded their estimates for growth, inflation and unemployment amid accelerating vaccinations and a fresh $1.9 trillion in fiscal stimulus, while investors have increased odds that the Fed will raise rates earlier than it previously signaled.Policy makers will probably upgrade their projections for expansion in gross domestic product this year to about 6% to reflect the additional fiscal aid and improving outlook, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Fed members may tweak inflation forecasts higher and leave the labor-market outlook little changed, according to the survey.What Bloomberg Economics Says...“Monetary policy makers remain firmly committed to the policy glide path they instituted in 2020 for both interest rates and asset purchases, even though the economic outlook has improved of late, particularly in response to the latest round of fiscal stimulus. Recent public comments signaled a willingness among Fed officials to tolerate a moderate rebound in interest rates as evidence of more optimistic economic sentiment among market participants.”--Carl J. Riccadonna and Yelena Shulyatyeva, economistsFor the full note, click here“The Fed is set to give us a substantial upward revision for the economy,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Plc in New York. “You will hear the same message from Powell of how far we have to go with the labor market. The employment gap is still quite large.”The inflation forecasts could give an indication of whether some committee members are embracing the FOMC’s strategy of overshooting 2% price gains, based on whether they pencil in projections north of that number.FOMC StatementWhile the statement will acknowledge an improving outlook, it’s unlikely to change the guidance on interest rates or asset purchases, economists said. The committee is likely to continue to describe financial conditions as “accommodative,” reflecting the view that rising yields are in response to a strengthening economy.One possible change would be saying inflation “remains low but is expected to rise in the coming months due to higher energy prices and other transitory factors related to the recovery in demand,” said Brett Ryan, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank AG. That would be dovish as “they want to see a sustained upward move in inflation, which will take time to assess as the economy reopens.”Press ConferencePowell may push back gently against the rise in yields, repeating his view that he would be concerned by disorderly trading of Treasuries or a broader tightening in financial conditions. He may also downplay the significance of the dots, especially if they drift to show more officials are forecasting rate hikes.“The chairman has an opportunity to expand on the Fed’s perception of recent market volatility and whether it is yet seen as disorderly -- and if so, what the Fed plans to do about it,” said Lindsey Piegza, chief economist with Stifel Nicolaus & Co. in Chicago.Powell’s handling of the recovery may be parsed not only by markets but by the White House. His term as chair ends in February, and he’s declined to say whether he is open to serving a second stint. Most economists expect President Joe Biden will make him the offer, according to the Bloomberg survey.IOER Move?Economists say it’s possible the Fed could tweak its interest rate on excess reserves, currently 0.10%. But such a move would be a technical adjustment that has no monetary-policy implications. Rather, it would be designed to help policy makers keep their benchmark federal funds rate within the target range. Most economists expect no move this meeting, however.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- Credit Suisse Group AG warned it may take a financial hit after the implosion of Greensill Capital forced it to freeze $10 billion of funds and put a loan to the firm at risk, threatening to spoil what had been the bank’s best start to a year in a decade.The lender said Tuesday that while it’s still early, it may need to book a charge related to business it conducted with Greensill Capital, including a loan it extended before the firm filed for insolvency. That prospect overshadowed an otherwise strong start to the year, with revenue at the investment bank up more than 50% in the first two months and pretax income for the group the best in 10 years.The collapse of Credit Suisse’s supply chain finance funds, which it ran with Greensill, has pushed Switzerland’s second-biggest bank into the deepest crisis since Chief Executive Officer Thomas Gottstein took over a year ago. The CEO, who’s already had to contend with a series of past missteps and losses in his first year at the helm, is facing questions about controls and risk management, not least because he ordered a review of the funds just last year that subsequently failed to prevent their collapse.“I would be lying if I said supply chain wasn’t adistraction,” Gottstein said at a conference on Tuesday, in some of his first public comments since the scandal broke. “I cannot promise a specific result —- my lawyers wouldn’t allow me to do that -— but I can promise I will undertake all efforts to reach the best possible outcome for our supply chain fund investors”Shares of Credit Suisse rose 1.7% as of 2:29 p.m. in Zurich. The stock lost almost 9% this month before Tuesday, compared with a small gain for UBS Group AG, its closest rival.The Swiss bank joined German rival Deutsche Bank AG, which also flagged a “strong start to 2021” when it presented its annual report last week. Deutsche Bank still expects revenue to decline this year after a particularly strong trading performance in 2020.Credit Suisse had already indicated last month that it saw a substantial increase in client activity in the early part of 2021, benefiting the key private banking business and the investment bank. The latter unit reported revenues of 2.08 billion francs ($2.24 billion) in the first quarter of last year.Analysts have said that while the financial hit from the Greensill debacle to Credit Suisse is likely to be limited, the reputational damage is only just unfolding. Credit Suisse said it recovered $50 million recently of a $140 million loan it made to Greensill Capital late last year. The remainder of the loan is collateralized, Gottstein said, without detailing how much he expects to recover in total.The bank had brushed off concerns from some risk managers about the loan, which was made just months before the firm’s collapse, people familiar with the matter have said.More damaging, at least in terms of reputation, was the decision to freeze four funds that had been presented to investors as some of the safest in the bank’s lineup. Credit Suisse said the money pools expect to return more capital to investors in coming months, after paying out about $3.1 billion so far. The bank has an additional $1.25 billion in cash across the four funds as money has continued to roll in from the Greensill-arranged notes, Gottstein said at the annual Morgan Stanley European Financials Conference.The funds’ collapse was triggered by the refusal of a major insurer -- Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. -- to extend new coverage for the assets. In a statement on Tuesday, Credit Suisse said that the bank’s chief risk and compliance officer, Lara Warner, was only informed about that imminent risk a week before the funds were gated.Lex Greensill has said in court documents that he kept top Credit Suisse officials informed of his difficulties in securing fresh insurance for weeks before his supply-chain finance empire’s abrupt collapse. The insurance on the assets was one reason why Credit Suisse had presented them as so safe.“While we do not expect Credit Suisse to pay for investor losses, we see potential legal risk and ongoing regulatory scrutiny,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Kian Abouhossein wrote in a note to clients. “Greensill could be a material setback” to efforts by Gottstein to move on from writedowns and legal costs.(Updates with comments from Credit Suisse CEO in fourth paragraph)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
AstraZeneca was upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies, and its price target lifted to 8850 pence ($61.05 per U.S.-listed share) from 8250 pence. Analysts led by Peter Welford said AstraZeneca's "impressive" revenue and profit trajectory is compelling relative to European pharma peers, and the approaching close of the Alexion acquisition will make the deal's merits more widely appreciated. The analysts are slightly more optimistic than consensus in oncology growth drivers Calquence, Imfinzi, Lynparza and Tagrisso. Upcoming Phase III data for its coronavirus vaccine -- which "could look relatively underwhelming" -- could represent a buying opportunity.
European stocks opened higher on Tuesday, chasing Monday’s momentum from Wall Street as concerns over the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines across the continent continue.
(Bloomberg) -- Warburg Pincus LLC, an early investor in Ant Group Co., marked down the value of the Chinese fintech giant after its initial public offering was derailed last year, according to people familiar with the matter.The company cut Ant’s valuation to a range of $200 billion to $250 billion at year end, down from a peak of about $280 billion before the IPO was halted amid a regulatory crackdown, the people said, requesting not to be identified because the matter is private.Global investors in Ant are grappling with how to assess their investments made in 2018 when the firm was valued at $150 billion. Ant is discussing a “short-term liquidity solution” for employees in April, while Chairman Eric Jing told employees that the company would eventually go public.Ant raised about $14 billion in 2018 from backers including Singapore’s GIC Pte, Khazanah Nasional Berhad, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and Temasek Holdings Pte.Silver Lake Management LLC, Warburg and Carlyle Group Inc. were the biggest U.S. backers, investing at least $500 million each, people familiar have said. General Atlantic LLC invested about $350 million in the same round, the people said.Representatives for Ant and Warburg declined to comment on the valuation, which was reported earlier by Reuters.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
Stripe’s valuation has more than doubled from a year ago to $95 billion, putting the fintech into the upper echelons of the world’s most valuable payment companies. Despite the highflying fundraising round, age still comes before beauty in the business of digital transactions. At 11 years old, the quickly diversifying Stripe can hardly be called a startup any longer, but it’s still much younger than Visa, the credit card network, and PayPal, which pioneered payments for online commerce, each of which have market capitalizations in the hundreds of billions.
The central bank will begin digital currency experiments later this spring.
Depending on where you bank, your stimulus check may not land until at least Wednesday. So be careful and check your account before swiping your card.
Ackman, who runs hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management, said on Twitter he also donated the shares to a donor-advised funds program and another non-profit he did not identify. The donation is valued at $1.36 billion, calculated at Coupang's current share price of $51.4. Ackman, who took home an estimated $1.4 billion last year after having delivered a 70.2% return, has previously supported a scholarship charity and other causes through his foundation.
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