Fantasy baseball: 10 players to pass on at their current draft value

Be open-minded, especially in a year played in the midst of a pandemic, coming off another abbreviated by and heavily impacted by said pandemic.

This year's "Not on my team!" list, my annual list of the players in whom I'm least interested and therefore least expect to roster to my fantasy baseball teams, was particularly tough to compile. There are precious few players I refuse to draft, a point that also came up in my "Tristan's Twenty" column regarding Adalberto Mondesi, whom I expected would be the poster boy for this year's list but as of this morning is a relative bargain, going 54th overall in ESPN drafts during the past week.

Anyone can be a value selection, depending upon how far he lasts in your draft -- even Mondesi! -- and maybe some of the names below will linger long enough on the board that even I would be happy to roster them. Based on what I'm seeing in my early drafts, in ESPN's ADP, in offsite ADPs and other leagues I've read about or witnessed, though, these are the 10 players whom I would not roster for their current price tags.

I'm notorious for avoiding the previous year's out-of-nowhere rookie superstar, and Arozarena certainly qualifies as that for 2020, having set the all-time record for most home runs (10), hits (29) and total bases (64) in a single postseason. Such a performance, naturally, isn't remotely repeatable, and my worry is that the regression bug might hit hard. From his Aug. 30 recall forward, and including the postseason, Arozarena hit 49 balls in the air (and only 22 of those were categorized as fly balls), and 17, or 19.1%, of them cleared the fence. That's completely out of character with his past profile, as he had a near-50% ground ball rate with the Rays, and greater than 50% such rates during his Double- and Triple-A tenure. The main reasons I'm willing to rank Arozarena within my top 75 overall players are his speed -- he was in the 95th percentile in Statcast's sprint speed -- and defense, which should fuel everyday at-bats. There's a 20/20 path here, but I'm not sure there's a lot more than that, and that really limits his profit potential when he's going within the top 60 overall picks.

Cavan Biggio, 2B/3B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays

If it's any sort of sabermetrically minded league -- on-base percentage over batting average, 6x6, points-based -- I'm plenty on board with Biggio as a potential top-50 overall player. The problem is that, at least casually glancing the industry ADPs, there's a perception that his keen plate approach should spill over to some value in traditional rotisserie or head-to-head category leagues. Let's be blunt: Biggio's batting average will probably be on the wrong side of .250, and he lacks the elite hard-contact metrics to rank among the year's top breakthrough candidates -- and keep in mind that the change to the baseball could further complicate his power potential. I want to love the guy, but I'm out if his ADP is inside the top 70-75.

The calf injury that knocked him from his Sunday Grapefruit League start might make his inclusion on the list an obvious one, but ask yourself, did that really change anything for you? For me it didn't. It served a reminder that Strasburg is a perennial injury risk, best encapsulated by his having averaged 24.5 starts per 162 Nationals games since the beginning of the 2015 season. I was already fading the right-hander more than most, and maybe this means his ADP will shift into bargain territory, but I'm resistant to drafting him even if he drops a handful of spots. After all, his average fastball velocity declined in each of 2017, 2018 and 2019, and it was a reported 92 mph in his March 9 start. Restoring some of that lost velocity would go a long way towards improving confidence in his ability to bounce back to fantasy-ace status.

Brad Hand, RP, Washington Nationals

He's being paid to close, and as such, the Nationals will surely give Hand a lengthy leash in the role. Like Strasburg, however, Hand has lost fastball velocity in recent seasons, reaching an eight-year low of 91.4 mph on average in 2020, and the result was a mere 4.7% swinging strike rate with the pitch (his career rate is 8.2%). While some reports have indicated that he has made improving his velocity key to his spring training, a quick look at the Statcast metrics from his March 11 outing showed no tangible change, as he averaged only 91.4 mph in the outing on 11 fastballs. Hand has been extremely slider-reliant in recent years, which can be taxing on a pitcher's arm, and he has become increasingly fly ball-oriented as well. There's a steeper downside than you might think, and Tanner Rainey behind him has the skills to step in if needed.

There are parts of Plesac's breakthrough 2020 that inspire confidence in a full-season repeat: He eased off his so-so four-seam fastball, sprinkling in more sliders and changeups, and he simply poured pitches over the plate (2.9%). Still, for the price -- he's going SP24 in NFBC leagues but SP32 in ESPN leagues -- are we really willing to take an eight-start sample this seriously? Plesac had the majors' highest left-on-base percentage (91.7%), the 10th-lowest BABIP (.224), Statcast said he should've had a 3.38 ERA rather than 2.28, and he capitalized by pitching in the weakest of the three competitive regions -- three of his five best outings came against the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals. I don't think Plesac has much room to grow in 2021, and in fact, I think it's much more likely his ratios take big steps backwards, with most of the contributions he provides you coming in the form of quantity (30-plus starts).

Again, here's an "injury-prone" player whose case is seemingly an easy one to make. With Stanton, though, I'm concerned that it's not only that. He's now 31 years old, and while it came in a mere 41-game, 2019-20 combined sample, he showed a more distinct inability to get under the ball than he did during his prime. Stanton hit a fly ball only 14% and 12% of the time in 2019 and 2020, and it's important to remember that we take the chance on him staying healthy only because we believe he still has that natural, 50-homer raw ability when he's 100%. What if the 2021 edition of Stanton is more of a 40-homer natural hitter? That's just not a top-100 overall pick.

His September generated a lot of buzz, but it was also one of the most fortunate one-month stretches of the 2020 baseball season. Hayes had a whopping .450 BABIP, and if you use Statcast's expected statistics, he batted 92 points higher than his expected number and 102 wOBA points higher, with those divides the third- and second-largest among hitters with at least his 95 trips to the plate. He also calls one of the worst ballparks for right-handed power his home, not to mention had more of a defensive than offensive reputation while rising the minor league ranks. Hayes should carve out an everyday role on the strength of his glove, but I think he's due for an adjustment period with the bat in this, his first full year in the majors.

A lot of things went right for Gonzales in 2020, and I tend to fade the pitcher lacking elite stuff who is coming off a good-fortune campaign. Not that his SP45 current ESPN ADP is outrageous, but in that group, give me the upside of a Sixto Sanchez or Kevin Gausman first. Gonzales has a 19.5% strikeout rate during his three full seasons with the Mariners, 74th out of 92 pitchers with at least 50 starts, and his 2.5% walk rate didn't exactly align with his first-pitch strike rate, which was actually worse than he posted in either 2018 or 2019 -- it hinted that he was fortunate in the walks department. He simply lacks top-shelf, swing-and-miss stuff, and since pitchers like this need to be pitch-perfect with their command to succeed, I don't want to take that chance.

Jonathan Villar, 2B/SS, New York Mets

Fantasy managers do desperate things in the quest for stolen bases late in their drafts, but Villar is one of those "fools' gold" types who looks like a top-150 pick but might not even return mixed-league value at all. His 2020 numbers were inflated by a bloated, and unsustainable, 35.6% attempt rate on his opportunities (those as measured by Baseball-Reference.com), as he actually slipped to a modest 27.1 feet per second Statcast sprint speed, his worst in any of his six years during which they measured it. Villar posted personal worsts in terms of swinging-strike and chase rates, and he batted a miserable .189/.282/.200 with one extra-base hit in his final 29 games of 2020. He's a good pickup from the Mets, thanks to his versatility and ability to pinch run for them late in games, but I see neither a path to regular at-bats nor a significant rebound in his skill set coming in 2021.

Andres Gimenez, SS/2B/3B, Cleveland Indians

This one is all about the ADP, and again, it's fantasy managers reaching for a player probably in the pursuit of cheap steals. Gimenez has gotten positive reviews for his early spring work, and in all likelihood he'll be Cleveland's everyday shortstop to begin the season, but he might not provide much more than good defense and 20-steal speed. He's one of the weaker hitters around -- he had a 26.4% hard hit rate, per Statcast -- doesn't walk that often and is only middling in terms of making contact, with a 76.4% rate in Triple-A in 2019 and 76.3% with the Mets in 2020. Gimenez looks like one of those players with big adjustments yet to make before he'd be a fantasy asset for anything other than his handful of steals, but he's being drafted among the top 150 players overall in NFBC leagues in the past week.