There has never been a surprise in Kondotty. This Assembly constituency, formed in 1957, has always been a stronghold of the Indian Union Muslim League and all the 16 MLAs who have represented the segment have won with considerably good margins.
Kondotty constituency, now represented by T.V. Ibrahim in the Assembly, consists of Vazhayur, Vazhakkad, Pulikkal, Cherukavu, Cheekode, and Muthuvallur grama panchayats besides Kondotty Municipality of Malappuram district. It is one of the seven Assembly constituencies that form the Malappuram Lok Sabha constituency.
A tradition
Kondotty has favoured the IUML much before it became part of the front led by the Congress and has a history of having IUML and Congress candidates pitched against each other twice. M.P.M. Ahammed Kurikkal of IUML had defeated Kolakkadan Aboobakker of the Congress in 1957 while Syed Ummer Bafakhi of IUML defeated M.P. Gangadharan of Congress in 1967.
Former Chief Minister C.H. Mohammed Koya represented Kondotty for three years from 1970, but resigned later when he became an MP. P.Seethi Haji represented Kondotty for four consecutive terms from 1977 to 1991.
In 2011, K.Muhammedunni Haji retained the seat winning against P.C.Noushad of CPI(M) and Kumari Sukumaran of BJP. In the next polls in 2016, T.V. Ibrahim won but with a considerable fall in his vote share.
There was also an evident increase in the vote share of the LDF and the Bharatiya Janata Party that time.
Even a marginal shift in the loyalties in this constituency is highly unlikely unless something drastic happens in the political front of the State in the coming one month. Otherwise, there is no scope for the guessing game here.