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China’s Modest Growth Target Signals Policy Shift From World

Bloomberg News
·4 min read
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(Bloomberg) --

China set a conservative economic growth target that signals more restrained monetary and fiscal policies this year, in contrast to other major nations still pumping in stimulus.

The government set a growth target of above 6% for the year, well below what economists forecast, and will narrow the budget deficit to 3.2% of gross domestic product, Premier Li Keqiang said Friday at the opening of the National People’s Congress. While the fiscal gap is lower than last year, it’s above the 3% expected by many analysts, signaling Beijing still sees a need for spending to support the recovery.

“A target of over 6% will enable all of us to devote full energy to promoting reform, innovation, and high-quality development,” said Li. “China will continue to face many development risks and challenges, but the economic fundamentals that will sustain long-term growth remain unchanged.”

After emerging from the pandemic as the only major economy to expand last year, Beijing is now shifting its focus to tackling imbalances made worse by last year’s stimulus -- such as dependence on investment in property and infrastructure funded by corporate debt. That contrasts with other major economies such as the U.S., which are still injecting record levels of stimulus to overcome the impact of the coronavirus.

“The government has set a more flexible economic growth target to leave room for structural reform and pandemic uncertainties,” said Bruce Pang, head of macro and strategy research at China Renaissance Securities Hong Kong. It’s almost certain that China will achieve that growth rate this year, which suggests authorities are shifting their focus to the quality of growth instead of speed, he added.

The government said in its report that spending will be weighted toward “projects which will help significantly improve the people’s wellbeing.” It listed programs such as renovation of old housing, better public services in smaller towns, raising the basic pension, and increasing child-care and assistance for the elderly. It also pledged to improve the health-care system by reforming public hospitals, supporting the development of private hospitals, and setting up a mechanism to cover outpatient medical bills.

This year’s meeting of the NPC, China’s main legislature, had added significance because of the release of a new five-year plan covering 2021-2025. A key focus of the plan is boosting spending and driving research into cutting-edge chips and artificial intelligence, laying out a technological blueprint to vie for global influence with the U.S.

Click for English or Chinese version of China’s 2021 Government Work Report

The government also projected defense spending growth of 6.8% this year, the largest increase since 2019, amid tensions with the U.S. and key neighbors.

Slow Consumer Recovery

“The foundation for achieving our country’s economic recovery needs to be further consolidated, impediments to consumer spending remain, and investment growth lacks sustainability,” Li said. “Our innovation capacity in key areas needs to be improved. Some local governments have serious budgetary deficits. In forestalling and defusing risks in the financial sector and other areas, we face formidable tasks.”

China’s V-shaped recovery alongside a recession in the U.S. and elsewhere puts it on course to become the world’s largest economy by 2028, two years earlier than expected, according to projections by several banks including Nomura Holdings Inc. However, there has been a build-up in debt and worries about asset bubbles alongside that recovery, fueling expectations that policy makers will withdraw the monetary and fiscal stimulus unleashed during the pandemic last year.

What Bloomberg Economics Says...

This is a low bar for this year. Bloomberg Economics forecasts GDP will expand 8.2% this year, reflecting continued progress in the recovery and a low base of comparison last year, when growth slumped to 2.3%.

-- Chang Shu, chief Asia economist

For the full report, click here

China’s CSI 300 Index of stocks recovered after falling as much as 2% Friday, and was down 0.5% at the lunch break in Shanghai. The market is down 9.5% from its peak in early February. Traders blamed the initial losses on a global rout overnight, rather than any negative headlines out of the NPC. China’s government bonds were little changed, while the onshore yuan weakened less than 0.1%.

The quota for local government bond sales is higher than the 3.5 trillion yuan forecast by analysts as the government continues to pursue proactive fiscal policy. On monetary policy, the government reiterated that it would be prudent, and would keep the yuan basically stable at a reasonable level.

(Updates with additional detail.)

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©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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