Tamil Nadu’s forthcoming assembly elections will be the first one in ages without M Karunanidhi or J Jayalalithaa, dominant political personalities of their time. Yet, the run-up has been as riveting as any in the past. First, Rajnikanth made his long anticipated political debut with the promise of an ambiguous “spiritual politics”. It was a mere guest appearance. VK Sasikala, a close associate of Jayalalithaa and a former interim general secretary of AIADMK, came out of jail and appeared to introduce an unfathomable dimension to the contest. She too didn’t stay long and has “stepped aside”.
Where does that leave the state’s politics? DMK and AIADMK continue to be the poles around whom most other players converge. With the poles emerging out of the same Dravidian political ideology, Tamil Nadu is an outlier in Indian politics. For over half a century, the electorate has been impervious to the phases of Congress or BJP dominance elsewhere. Politics has been underpinned by a common thread: Welfarism, prioritising industrial policy in the economic sphere and building cults around personalities. The outcome has been impressive progress in economic and social indicators, but with problems lurking beneath.
A decisive influence on the outcome may be the incumbent AIADMK government’s last minute decision to carve out a sub-quota for the Vanniyar community within the MBC reserved category. Slicing and dicing can have unexpected consequences in tight contests. It’s also a symptom of new challenges that can no longer be solved by old formulae such as reservations. AIADMK goes into the election looking a bit stronger after Sasikala’s exit. DMK, along with its ally Congress, swept the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. But assembly polls are a different ballgame. The intriguing question is whether the coming polls will open up more space for non-Dravidian political formations.
This piece appeared as an editorial opinion in the print edition of The Times of India.
Top Comment
Ashok
2 hours ago
Education and employment are challenges in Tamil Nadu, as they are in other parts of the country. The state may have relied overly on the welfare aspects of governance, not investing sufficiently for the future. 2. CM EPS has proved to be a canny survivor, an astute politician and a good administrator. In some ways more in touch with common people than the imperious Ms Jayalalithaa. It will be a fantastic achievement if he can win a third successive election for his party. 3. Comrade Stalin is still a largely untested personage, although he swept the 2019 general election. 4. For the BJP, Tamil Nadu represents a very different territory from the core heartland where it has secured its majorities in 2014 and 2019. The question is whether it would wish to modify its world view sufficiently to accommodate this stunning diversity of India. It has succeeded in the north east, through exceptional realpolitik. When knowledgeable people say that CM Ajay Bisht represents the future, that would give pause in states like Tamil Nadu or even Kerala, where an 88 year old gentleman is seeing visions of grandeur.... Read More