Monorail is a ‘viable’ transit option for I-270 but wouldn’t reduce traffic, study says

Of the 34,800 to 47,800 individuals anticipated to experience a monorail every day, primarily based on its velocity and frequency, practically 10,000 would come from different transit techniques, together with MARC commuter rail and categorical commuter buses. The monorail would appeal to about 10,300 new transit journeys every day, which might take that many autos off I-270 and different roads within the hall — about a 0.1 % discount in site visitors, the study discovered.

“The [monorail] ridership has been determined to be a concern due to the decrease in ridership anticipated from the other transit services and the overall lack of reduction of single-occupancy vehicle trips from I-270,” the study stated.

More improvement must be clustered round potential station websites to generate ridership, and motorists would want a “behavioral shift” to modify to mass transit, the study stated.

Monorail advocates say they query among the findings, significantly the assumptions underlying the ridership calculations. However, the general conclusion that monorail can be possible, they are saying, exhibits it deserves critical consideration as a strategy to broaden mass transit.

“They’ve confirmed that this is a viable transit mode,” stated Montgomery County developer Robert O. Eisinger, the proposal’s main champion, who has funded his personal monorail marketing consultant research through his High Road Foundation. “This is not Disneyland. This is not Mickey Mouse. If nothing else, this says when you’re looking at traffic congestion solutions, this has to be considered.”

Eisinger’s thought has drawn consideration at a time when some state and native officers say MDOT’s plan to alleviate site visitors congestion on I-270 and a part of the Capital Beltway by including high-occupancy toll lanes provides brief shrift to mass transit. MDOT rejected the thought of increasing the MARC commuter rail system as a part of its “traffic relief plan” but has stated buses utilizing the congestion-free toll lanes would develop into extra dependable and engaging.

MDOT additionally has stated Transurban, the Australian toll highway operator, and Macquarie, its accomplice funding financial institution — the businesses it has selected to develop the first phase of its HOT lanes plan — have estimated they may commit not less than $300 million over a 50-year partnership to mass transit techniques in Montgomery.

Montgomery and Frederick officers have lengthy sought to reduce site visitors congestion within the I-270 hall, the place the freeway, not less than pre-pandemic, was jammed most mornings and evenings. The hall is Montgomery’s hub for biotech firms, and the freeway carries commuters between extra reasonably priced properties in farther-out suburbs and jobs in Montgomery, Washington and Northern Virginia.

Meanwhile, firms within the hall say they want higher transit choices to draw employees, significantly millennials who need to keep away from driving.

Eisinger stated he agreed with a lot of the state study, besides for ridership forecasts and predictions of how a lot site visitors a monorail would take off roads. He stated ridership forecasts have been “very, very conservative” as a result of they have been primarily based on assuming a monorail would journey under 65 mph. The state report says the study assumed a median velocity of 35 mph for extra conservative ridership forecasts and to account for the truth that trains have to cease at stations and decelerate on curves.

Eisinger questioned whether or not the Washington Council of Governments — which analyzed potential ridership within the study — used outdated forecasts for future improvement when evaluating ridership, moderately than assuming that high-density improvement might be clustered round monorail stations.He additionally questioned why the study didn’t particularly look at how a lot site visitors can be taken off I-270 moderately than all roads within the space.

Drawing passengers from different transit techniques, particularly those who journey extra slowly, would higher serve riders and lower your expenses if some redundant categorical bus routes might be eradicated, he stated.

The state did the study on the path of the Maryland Board of Public Works, which required it when the board accredited the HOT lane plan. The subsequent step can be a extra detailed environmental influence study, which might be required to obtain federal development funding.

MDOT officers didn’t reply instantly to questions on whether or not it’s going to do a extra detailed study. In October, the company stated it’s “committed to finding all possible solutions” to alleviate site visitors congestion, together with increasing transit, rising telework and constructing the toll lanes.

The study discovered that an “aggressive” schedule would enable the monorail to be in-built about 5 years. It would have six stations: the Frederick MARC station, Urbana, Clarksburg, Germantown, Metropolitan Grove and the Shady Grove Metro station in Rockville.

The largest hurdle: No one has recognized a strategy to pay for it, together with its ongoing working prices, since transit strains sometimes require authorities subsidies. Eisinger stated the road might be constructed and operated through a public-private partnership. His personal marketing consultant’s evaluation discovered that a monorail priced equally to Metro would gather greater than sufficient fare income to cowl the projected annual working and upkeep prices.

Eisinger stated he believes property house owners round station websites would donate land in alternate for being allowed to construct at larger densities. He stated his firm, Rockville-based Promark Partners, owns property throughout the Washington area but not at any potential monorail station websites.

While a extra detailed environmental influence evaluation can be required, the study discovered that constructing the monorail stations and upkeep amenities would have an effect on as much as 27 acres of personal residential and industrial property. Most of the monorail might be constructed inside the freeway proper of approach.

The study famous that ridership forecasts additionally can be affected by how shortly, and the way a lot, transit ridership rebounds after the pandemic.