India Q3 GDP Preview; FY21 GDP Revision: Nirmal Bang

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Nirmal Bang Report

Gross domestic product in Q3FY21 (due on February 26) is likely to come in flat at 0% against our earlier estimate of a 2.1% decline.

The upward revision in our estimate is on account of a sustained rebound in the manufacturing sector, aided by strong performance of the listed corporate sector and most importantly a rebound in government spending in Q3 FY21.

The rebound in government spending is likely to sustain in Q4 FY21 as well, going by the revised fiscal deficit estimate of 9.5% of GDP for FY21.

We now expect GDP growth to return to positive territory in Q4 FY21 at approximately 1.5% YoY.

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