Coal Could Boom in India if Renewables Can’t Keep up With Growth: Rystad
Power generation from coal in India fell to a five-year low of “just” 1,064 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2020 due to the COVID-19 induced slowdown. This was only a dip, however, as coal still makes up a gigantic 70 percent of the country’s total electricity production and is set to come back with a vengeance, growing by 43 percent to 1,523 TWh in 2037, when Rystad Energy expects coal power to finally peak.
As surprising as the projection may be to some, such a surge in coal consumption is not that unexpected. India’s power generation is set to grow exponentially to 3,565 TWh by 2037, more than double 2020’s figure. Electricity production will already exceed 2,000 TWh from 2025 and is set to breach the 3,000 TWh ceiling from 2034 as a result of an electrification boost and economic growth.
In fact, the authors expect India’s electricity generation to increase with an average annual growth of 4.2 percent, effectively tripling its current level over the next 30 years.
The outlook is not all grim for clean electricity, though. Today’s power mix will be unrecognisable in three decades as the government pushes for greener initiatives.
The report forecasts all renewable sources grouped together (wind, solar, hydro, and biofuels/waste) will surpass fossil fuels in India’s total power generation by 2038. Further out, the authors expect solar to outcompete coal by 2050 in terms of the largest share in the power mix.
