January home construction falls 6 per cent; signs of rebound ahead

US home construction fell 6per cent in January but applications for building permits, which typically signal activity ahead, rose sharply.

The decline pushed home and apartment construction down to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.58 million units last month, compared with 1.68 million in December, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Single-family construction starts dropped 12.2 per cent while construction of apartment units rose 16.2 per cent.

Applications for building permits, considered a good sign of future activity, were up 10.4 per cent in January to an annual rate of 1.88 million units.

Even with the January dip, ultra-low mortgage rates and rising demand from Americans ready for a bigger house after a year of living in a pandemic will in all likelihood mean a strong year for the housing market in 2021.

That push had already begun in 2020 with home construction rising 7 per cent in 2020 to 1.38 million units. That was the strongest showing since a housing boom in 2006.

"We still expect recovering demand, low mortgage rates and a shortage of supply to support a healthy rate of new home construction and the risk may be for further upsides surprises," said Nancy, lead economist at Oxford Economics.

Still, Vanden Houten expects the pace of housing construction will moderate somewhat this year as the desire to build collides with high lumber prices and well as a shortage of available land and workers.

Construction fell 12.3 per cent in the Midwest and 11.4 per cent in the West. It dropped 2.5 per cent in the South. The only region of the country that saw an increase last month was the Northeast, where construction rose by 2.3 per cent.

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