The Application Laboratory of the Japanese national forecaster Jamstec has retained a watch for cooler-than-normal spring and summer (March-April-May) for India except parts of North-West India, and normal rainfall for most parts of the country in its updated forecast based on February 1.
However, updated outlook for the monsoon months of June-July-August points to a weak rainfall trend emerging over Central and adjoining Peninsular India (Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana), while North-West India and East India may witness above normal precipitation.
No major deficiency, says UK Met
The UK Met Office forecasts based on initial conditions of February did not indicate any major deficiency of rain in any part of the country and put the probability of above-normal rainfall during the May-June-July (pre-monsoon and early monsoon) in the 40-percentile.
Meanwhile, Tuesday (yesterday) saw a nascent wave of unseasonal thunderstorms wade into parts of Central India and North-West India with rain or thundershowers reported from East Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, West Uttar Pradesh, West Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Odisha. Rainfall recorded until 5.30 pm (over 1 cm) included Ambikapur, Jabalpur, Malanjkhand and Pendra Road-1 each.
More thunderstorms forecast
As for today (Wednesday), an India Meteorological Department (IMD) outlook sees thunderstorms, lightning and hail rolling out at isolated places over Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada; with lightning in isolated places over East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, plains of West Bengal, Telangana, Interior Karnataka, Kerala and Mahe.
Outlook for tomorrow (Thursday) said that thunderstorms, lightning and hail are likely over Jharkhand, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Telangana and North Interior Karnataka; with lightning in isolated places over Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, plains of West Bengal, Odisha, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka, Kerala and Mahe.
Wind discontinuity, trough
On Friday, the IMD said that thunderstorms accompanied by lightning may strike at isolated places over Jharkhand, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, South Interior Karnataka, Kerala, Mahe, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal.
This is attributed to a strong wind discontinuity (a narrow corridor where wind regimes from opposite sides meet) over Central India with moisture inflow from the Bay of Bengal. The wind discontinuity may move down to over the Peninsula and persist until Thursday. There is also a trough of lower pressure running up from South Konkan to a cyclonic circulation over Vidarbha across Madhya Maharashtra.
To the North, a visiting feeble western disturbance may trigger isolated rainfall/snowfall over Uttarakhand on Wednesday (today) and Thursday. Dense to very dense fog may hang over pockets of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh into the morning hours of Thursday.