New Delhi: India’s Covid-19 effective reproduction number (R) — an indicator of how fast the infection spreads within a population — has remained constant at 0.92.
The value of R needs to be sustained below 1 for the pandemic to come to an end.
“Kerala, the state which currently has the highest number of active cases, has had R below 1 consistently from 24 January,” Sitabhra Sinha, a researcher at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai, told ThePrint.
“This week Kerala’s R was less than that of Maharashtra. If this trend continues Kerala may fall to the second spot (in terms of active cases) after Maharashtra,” he said.
Meanwhile, Karnataka has maintained R at 0.89 since last week and West Bengal — the state with the fourth-highest active case count — saw its R go down to 0.88 this week from 0.91 last week.
Tamil Nadu, however, continues to have a relatively high value of R at 0.97 (the same as last week), Sinha said. This week, the state had the fifth-highest active case count in the country.
Punjab’s R was very close to 1 last week. However, this week, the R for Punjab is below 1, although Sinha said that data from the state is fluctuating too much to get a robust estimate.
Uttar Pradesh also saw a significant drop in its R to 0.59 this week from 0.83 last week.
R values increase for Delhi, Rajasthan, Assam
R value for Delhi increased for the second week in a row. Last week, the value was 0.75 but it has increased to 0.87 this week. The week before that, R for Delhi was 0.74.
Similarly, Telangana also saw an increase in R value from 0.63 last week to 0.81 this week.
Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Assam are some of the other states that saw a rise in the R values.
For Rajasthan, R was 0.69 last week, which has increased to 0.83 this week. Assam’s R increased to 0.95 from 0.83.
Meanwhile, Madhya Pradesh saw a rise in R to 0.91 this week from 0.82 last week.
Pune’s R above 1 once again
Pune’s R has crossed 1 once again. From less than 1 last week, it has recorded an R of 1.17 this week.
Chennai, too, saw an increase in its R from 0.91 to 0.98. Bengaluru’s R was 0.88 last week, and has now risen to just below 1, although the data from the city is fluctuating too much for a robust estimate.
Mumbai, meanwhile, saw its R drop to 0.89 from 0.95 last week. Kolkata’s R has remained the same as last week at 0.96.
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