New Delhi: On 10th Feb 2021, when China started withdrawing its troops from finger areas of Pangong Tso lake as per arrangement suggested by India in 9th Corps Commander Level discussion, it came as surprise as the dragon was flexing its muscles as early as the first week of Jan 2021. China accepting a de-escalation plan suggested by India was a big-big diplomatic win too. Though the current event happened suddenly, signs were visible in the second week of January 2021 when China had unilaterally withdrawn about 10,000 or more than 20% of the total force level deployed in Eastern Ladakh. But when we see the overall sequence of events and Chinese posturing, both withdrawals, first in the month of January and the second one on 10th February were unusual.
But before we go further, let us understand the current de-escalation agreement. As per this agreement, troops withdrawal was to happen in three phases.
1. In the first phase, Chinese troops will withdraw behind finger 8 at the northern bank of Pangong Tso and will dismantle all the structures they have erected between finger 4 and finger 8. At the same time Indian troops will withdraw to their April 2020 positions to Dhan Singh Thapa (DST) post located just next to finger 3. This is almost complete now.
2. While the Indian troops will be able to carry out area domination till finger 4, the area between finger 4 and 8 will be completely vacated and none of the forces will patrol that area except joint patrolling with prior mutual consent. At the same time, there will be withdrawal of Armour and heavy equipment’s from Southern Bank of Pangong Tso including Rechin La & Demchok Sectors.
3. Once the first phase is complete, Commanders from both sides will review the situation and work out a model for second phase of withdrawal under which de-escalation will happen from Kailash Range and other important parts of Southern Pangong Tso including that at Demchok sector. However, the second phase will be totally dependent upon the evaluation of the first phase withdrawal.
4. The third phase will start after successful completion and evaluation of the second phase and this will include the systematic de-escalation in other sectors except for Dapsang Plains. In phase three, troops will move back by a few kilometres from the respective patrolling points (PPs) and will maintain the status quo.
5. The consensus about withdrawal from Dapsang Plains has yet to come to our notice since China is already blocking Indian movements near “Y” Junction area for several decades and it must show some positive moves now to facilitate de-escalation in this area.
Video: India-China Disengage at LAC
It is assumed that China will withdraw approximately 20,000 more troops in addition to the 10,000 withdrawn in Jan 2021. This will reduce the number to approximately 20,000 from an existing 50,000 indicating a 60% cut off in force level.
But the thing which surprised us was the speed of withdrawal from Chinese side. They were de-inducting their troops at an alarming speed putting several hundreds of the vehicles for the task. The troops were in so much of hurry that they even left some of their personal belongings behind.
Why China opted for de-escalation
Ironically, this de-escalation was totally on Indian terms and international strategic experts were surprised by such an unexpected move. This prompted us to investigate the factors which prompted China to accept Indian terms of withdrawal and the following aspects were noticed-
1. There has been the input of large-scale discontentment among the Chinese troops. Primarily because of poor Chinese preparations for winter, un-acclimatised troops, logistics issues and stretched up supply lines. Their morale was in boots and there were frequent incidents of quarrelling with their commanders.
2. This discontentment became much stronger due to the upcoming Chinese New Year. This is a time when most of the Chinese nationals go to their native place and celebrate a month-long festivity. In such a situation, it was difficult to hold the troops for a prolonged time in such harsh weather conditions which pushed the leaders of the Communist Party of China to initiate a unilateral withdrawal.
3. There has been a large number of illness and deaths due to inclement weather which further enhanced this discontentment. As per our inputs, China lost more than 200 of its soldiers to the weather and altitude-related sickness over the last six months. Since the Chinese Army is not experienced in alpine warfare, their stance can be well understood.
4. Stretched Supply lines have caused a massive burden on Chinese Exchequer too. Most of the supplies were being taken by Air and stocking of critical stores was not sufficient. Since at every level in their Armed Forces, there is a political department which monitors the expenditure, it was taken very seriously.
5. Despite the fact that China built a narrative of Eastern Ladakh being their territory among their public using state-owned media, it was difficult for them to justify the same since there was no formal border agreement. Further, India has aggressively internationalised the Galwan Valley incident and this helped turning the international narrative against China hence compelling them to withdraw.
6. With global powers turning against them, trade being affected due to COVID19 pandemic, economy going down, Belt & Road Initiative in a stalemate and challenges in the South China Sea, China was in no position to take a prolonged stand in Eastern Ladakh and was looking for a respected de-escalation formula so when Indian Commanders suggested this in the 9th meeting, they accepted it wholeheartedly.
To summarise the entire episode, it is pertinent to say that since there have been temporary reasons for this de-escalation, the de-escalation itself may turn temporary. The way Chinese troops moved in the finger area in the absence of Indian Forces, they can repeat it again. The way Dragon is creating infrastructure in Eastern Ladakh and Tibet at an alarming pace, India must be vigilant to counter any of the Chinese motives. We must and we will.