Millions of lives saved annually by 2040 if countries raise climate ambitions to meet Paris Agreement targets: modelling study

Adopting policies that are consistent with achieving the Paris Agreement and prioritising health could save 6.4 million lives due to better diet, 1.6 million lives due to cleaner air, and 2.1 million lives due to increased exercise per year across nine countries.

New research from The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, published in a special issue of The Lancet Planetary Health Journal, highlights the benefits to health if countries adopt climate plans – Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – that are consistent with the Paris Agreement aim of limiting warming to “well below 2°C”.

The countries considered in the study represent 50 per cent of the world’s population and 70 per cent of the world’s emissions – Brazil, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa, the UK and the US.

Paris signatories are updating and revising their NDCs ahead of COP26 this year, which were due to be submitted before the end of last year, and remain to be announced in the majority of countries (including six out of the nine countries included in the study).

Currently, NDCs globally are not strong enough to achieve the Paris agreement (risking a global temperature rise of greater than 3°C), and the authors emphasise that the lives saved through better diet, cleaner air and increased exercise provide yet another rationale for strengthening commitments. Lead author Ian Hamilton, executive director of The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, said that the report focuses on a crucial but often overlooked incentive for tackling climate change

“Unlike the direct benefits of carbon mitigation which are ultimately long-term and understood in terms of damage limitation, the health co-benefits of ambitious climate policies have an immediate positive impact. Not only does delivering on Paris Agreement prevent millions dying prematurely each year, the quality of life for millions more will be improved through better health. We have an opportunity now to place health in the forefront of climate change policies to save even more lives,” he said. For each nation, emissions generated from energy, agriculture and transport sectors, and annual deaths due to air pollution, diet-related risk factors and physical inactivity, were estimated for the year 2040 for three different NDC scenarios.

Estimating for the year 2040, this scenario was designed to be aligned with the commitments of the Paris Agreement to limit the increase in global temperature to well below 2°C within the century and also to meet SDG2 (zero hunger), SDG3 (good health and wellbeing), SDG7 (affordable and clean energy), and SDG13 (climate action). If India can adhere to these commitments, then the study indicates the country would be able to save as many as 4.3 lakh lives due to cleaner air and 17.41 lakh lives due to better diet.

Across all nine countries, the Paris Agreement-compliant scenario could save 5.8 million lives due to better diet, 1.2 million lives due to cleaner air, and 1.2 million lives due to increased exercise. Adopting the more ambitious pathway, with explicit health objectives within the NDCs, could result in a further reduction of 462,000, 572,000, and 943,000 annual deaths attributable to air pollution, diet and physical inactivity, respectively.

The authors said that the number of deaths averted through air pollution, diet and physical activity were modelled separately, so they cannot be added together, as they cannot account for crossover in potential deaths averted due to air pollution, better diet, and increased exercise. As the modelling study projects into future possible scenarios, they also note that the estimates relied on various assumptions of future demographic and socio-economic trends.

The health benefits of strengthened NDC commitments are generated through both direct climate change mitigation as well as supporting actions to reduce exposure to harmful pollutants, improve diets and enable safe physical activity. Those countries benefitting most from dietary improvements in proportional terms, are Germany with 188 deaths avoided per 100,000 of population annually, followed by the US with 171 per 100,000 and China with 167 per 100,000, as per the study.