Pandemic to endemic, Covid is petering out, say experts

BENGALURU: The Covid pandemic is now nearing an endemic phase, say epidemiologists and virologists. “India is likely to see the transition from the epidemic to endemic phase in a month or two,” explained renowned virologist Dr Jacob John, a retired professor and head of departments of clinical virology and microbiology, Christian Medical College (Vellore).

“An endemic disease means it never really goes away and often returns in a specific season or region periodically. Theoretically, an infection becomes endemic if on an average each infected individual transmits it to one other person -- when the Reproduction number or R is 1. During an epidemic, R is more than one and when the spread is decreasing through control measures or herd immunity, R is less than 1,” he said.

But Dr N Manjunath, Director, Jayadeva Institute of Cardiology, said, “There are a number of patterns that can be observed in endemic diseases. Some can exist at low levels throughout the year, while others might show periods of higher transmission interspersed with periods of low transmissions.” P3

‘Covid must be eradicated with vaccines, like polio’

“This means Covid is here to stay. It can come back once a year until it is eradicated with vaccines like polio,” said Dr Manjunath, Director, Jayadeva Institute of Cardiology.The effectiveness of vaccination drive will be known only after the second week of March when the second dosage is completed, experts said.

The positivity rate in Karnataka has averaged 0.8% in the last few weeks. “The disease is in an endemic stage in the state as the number of cases went up, came down come and remained constant,” said Dr John.
Dr Giridhar Babu, advisor to Covid Task Force, however, said, “Over the last few months, cases have remained stagnant. The positivity rate too has gone down. The second round of sero-survey is being done in all districts.

We have to analyse the data to know how the virus is behaving. The argument about reaching the endemic stage is still hypothetical.”The government’s focus now should not be on curtailing the pandemic, but preventing deaths, Dr John said. “The government must focus on those who are at risk of death and prioritise them for vaccination, and people with comorbidities.”