86 million Indians at risk for melting glaciers
Representative Image. (AP Photo)Himalayan glaciers play an important role in SouthAsia, providing drinking water and water resources for agriculture, hydropower and biodiversity.Glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalaya Region are a crucial water supply for the 240 million people who live in the region, including 86 million Indians - roughly the equivalent of the country's five biggest cities combined. Climate change poses a big threat to these glaciers and the populations that rely on them, said experts.
Not only because of the ecosystem services that they provide, but also because their melting increases the risk of runoffs and floods, as recently seen with the Uttarakhand glacier.The “Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate” released by the IPCC in 2019 forecasted that glaciers would retreat in the upcoming years, causing landslides and floods.Ice loss in the Himalayas doubled in the period 2000-2016,compared to 1975-2000,according to a paper published in the journal Science in 2019 that used 40 years of satellite data, says Climate Trend.
The 2019 Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment, a comprehensive report coordinated by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), notes that eastern Himalaya glaciers have tended to shrink faster than those in central andwestern Himalaya. A 2018 discussion paper by The Energy and Resources Institute notes that the warming rate over the Himalayan region between 1986 and 2006 was 1.5ºC and is projected to increase up to 3ºC by mid-century, though with differences across the region. Even if global temperature is kept below 1.5ºC, around 35% of the ice mass stored in the High Mountains of Asia will be lost.
That number could increase up to 65% in a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions. These predictions are from a 2017 study published in Nature. A 2019 paper published in PNAS estimated that EasternHimalayas are a hotspot for glacier lake outburst floods, with a risk three times higher than other Himalayanregions.
A 2020 study looked at the risk of 329 glacial lakes in the Indian Himalayas,considering downstream impact and “potential number of buildings, bridges, and hydropower systems that could be inundated by glacial lake outburst floods in each lake”. Of those, they identified 23 as “very high risk lakes” and 50 as “high-risk lakes”. The Shakho Cho and Changchung Tso glaciers had the “most considerable risk,” says Climate Trends.
Not only because of the ecosystem services that they provide, but also because their melting increases the risk of runoffs and floods, as recently seen with the Uttarakhand glacier.The “Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate” released by the IPCC in 2019 forecasted that glaciers would retreat in the upcoming years, causing landslides and floods.Ice loss in the Himalayas doubled in the period 2000-2016,compared to 1975-2000,according to a paper published in the journal Science in 2019 that used 40 years of satellite data, says Climate Trend.
The 2019 Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment, a comprehensive report coordinated by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), notes that eastern Himalaya glaciers have tended to shrink faster than those in central andwestern Himalaya. A 2018 discussion paper by The Energy and Resources Institute notes that the warming rate over the Himalayan region between 1986 and 2006 was 1.5ºC and is projected to increase up to 3ºC by mid-century, though with differences across the region. Even if global temperature is kept below 1.5ºC, around 35% of the ice mass stored in the High Mountains of Asia will be lost.
That number could increase up to 65% in a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions. These predictions are from a 2017 study published in Nature. A 2019 paper published in PNAS estimated that EasternHimalayas are a hotspot for glacier lake outburst floods, with a risk three times higher than other Himalayanregions.
A 2020 study looked at the risk of 329 glacial lakes in the Indian Himalayas,considering downstream impact and “potential number of buildings, bridges, and hydropower systems that could be inundated by glacial lake outburst floods in each lake”. Of those, they identified 23 as “very high risk lakes” and 50 as “high-risk lakes”. The Shakho Cho and Changchung Tso glaciers had the “most considerable risk,” says Climate Trends.
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