U.K. Officials Fear South Africa Strain Could Threaten Recovery

(Bloomberg) -- Scientists are concerned the South Africa coronavirus strain could be far more widespread in the U.K. than test results show, posing a threat to plans to start lifting lockdown next month.

While the U.K.’s vaccination program is among the most advanced in the world, the new strain is at least partially resistant to the Oxford-AstraZeneca shot, according to early trial results. They showed the vaccine has limited efficacy against mild and moderate cases, but there was no conclusive data on more serious illness.

If vaccines do not protect against severe infections of new variants which can hospitalize people and take lives, lockdown restrictions may need to be kept in place for longer, a person familiar with the government’s thinking said.

Ministers have been trying to contain the South Africa variant by using so-called surge testing in areas of the country where it has been found. The aim is to test as many people as possible to identify those who have the strain but don’t have symptoms, in order to keep them isolated and stop the spread of infections.

While only 147 confirmed cases of the South Africa strain have been identified in the U.K., the true number is likely to be at least 10 times that, according to Lawrence Young, a virologist at the University of Warwick.

Reopening Britain

That’s because fewer than 10% of positive coronavirus tests are sequenced to find the variant.

“It’s already out there, it’s been here for a few weeks if not a few months,” Young said in an interview. “The bottom line is it’s everywhere and there’ll be a lot of people around with that infection.”

For Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government, the impact of the South Africa variant could wreck hopes of moving beyond the crisis and reopening the economy from its third national lockdown starting next month. The U.K. has suffered the fifth highest Covid death toll in the world and the worst economic hit of the Group of Seven.

Johnson has promised to set out a road map for easing the restrictions in the week of Feb. 22, with schools resuming face-to-face teaching as soon as March 8. Yet there may not be any reliable data by that point on whether the AstraZeneca vaccine prevents severe illness in patients with the South Africa variant. If the vaccines don’t prevent the most serious cases, it could completely change the outlook for lockdown easing, the person said.

Widely Spread

Ministers believe the AstraZeneca vaccine -- one of two currently being deployed across the U.K. -- will work to prevent serious illnesses, hospitalizations and deaths from the South Africa strain.

“We’re very confident in all the vaccines that we’re using,” Johnson told reporters during a visit to a covid test manufacturing plant in Derby. “All of them, we think, are effective in delivering a high degree of protection against serious illness and death, which is the most important thing.”

Young said this weekend’s study from South Africa was too small to provide definitive answers on whether the vaccine works.

“We’re jumping the gun in over-interpreting that and panicking about it,” he said. While the AstraZeneca vaccine “won’t be as effective against mild and moderate disease” for this variant, it is “very, very likely to protect against severe disease,” he added.

Professor Shabir Madhi from the University of the Witwatersrand, who led the study in South Africa, said there is “hope” the Astra shot will be effective in protecting against serious illness.

A vaccine by Johnson & Johnson, which uses “similar sorts of technology,” reduced severe disease by 89%, he told Radio 4’s Today program.

Mike Tildesley, who advises the government on pandemic modeling, said it is “very possible” the South African variant is already quite widely spread in the U.K.

“I would expect we could see quite a few more cases coming over the next few weeks and possibly quite a little bit more widespread, so it’s a real concern,” Tildesley, also from Warwick University, told BBC Radio 4’s Today program. He warned “more restrictions might be needed for longer” if the variant does turn out to be prevalent in the U.K.

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