Earnings Update: Here's Why Analysts Just Lifted Their NCC Group plc (LON:NCC) Price Target To UK£2.63

Simply Wall St

It's been a good week for NCC Group plc (LON:NCC) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest half-yearly results, and the shares gained 8.3% to UK£2.68. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of UK£136m and statutory earnings per share of UK£0.042 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that NCC Group is executing in line with expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for NCC Group

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from NCC Group's eight analysts is for revenues of UK£276.3m in 2021, which would reflect a credible 3.6% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 33% to UK£0.06. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of UK£272.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.052 in 2021. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the decent improvement in earnings per share expectations following these results.

The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 14% to UK£2.63. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values NCC Group at UK£3.25 per share, while the most bearish prices it at UK£1.83. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that NCC Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with forecast 3.6% increase next year well below the historical 6.9%p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 8.9% next year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than NCC Group.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards NCC Group following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for NCC Group going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for NCC Group that you need to take into consideration.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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