Global Cases Ease; Biden Warns on Immunity: Virus Update

(Bloomberg) --

Coronavirus infections continued to slow across the globe, though President Joe Biden said it’s unlikely the U.S. will reach herd immunity before the end of the summer due to a shortfall in vaccine availability.

Vaccine developers said they are working on a new shot to combat the South African strain after early data suggested AstraZeneca Plc’s product has limited efficacy against mild disease caused by the variant. There’s “a reasonable chance” that vaccines will stay ahead of virus mutations, said a former head of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

Sinovac Biotech Ltd.’s shot got conditional approval in China for the general public, while Indonesia approved it for the elderly. Thailand opted out of Covax, saying its rules are too strict. South Korea is relaxing its social distancing rules as new cases decline. Germany is likely to extend its lockdown for another two weeks.

Key Developments:

Subscribe to a daily update on the virus from Bloomberg’s Prognosis team here. Click CVID on the terminal for global data on cases and deaths.

Variants Blunt Vaccines by About 20%, Gottlieb Says (7:26 a.m. HK)

There’s “a reasonable chance” that vaccines will stay ahead of virus mutations, said Scott Gottlieb, a former head of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

“I think there’s a rule of thumb we can assume that the vaccines are probably going to be about 20% less effective against these new variants from Brazil and South Africa,” Gottlieb said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”

Yet he predicted the virus is “not going to continue to change as much.” Possibly in four to six months, scientists may be able discern “a consensus strain that bakes in a lot of the different variation that we’re seeing, to have boosters available for the fall,” Gottlieb said.

Japan Eyes Lifting Emergency Ahead of March Expiry: Asahi (7:24 a.m. HK)

The Japanese government is considering lifting the state of emergency in 10 prefectures early depending on the virus situations ahead of the expiry date of March 7, Asahi reported, without attribution. The government plans to hold virus meetings Friday, and may decide to lift the emergency in Gifu prefecture if the situation in the neighboring Aichi prefecture also improves.

Singapore Delays Travel Program for Businesses: BT (7:24 a.m. HK)

Singapore is pushing back a pilot program to bring officials and business people into the nation and put them in a “bubble,” the Business Times reports. Under the original plan for the Connect@Singapore initiative, the first travelers would have arrived in mid- to late January. The Singapore Tourism Board said it has not yet chosen operators for the facilities where these visitors would stay.

Biden Says Immunity Unlikely Before End of Summer (4:52 p.m. NY)

President Joe Biden said it’s unlikely the U.S. will reach herd immunity for the coronavirus before the end of the summer due to a shortfall in vaccine availability.

“The idea that this can be done and we can get to herd immunity much before the end of this summer is very difficult,” Biden said in an interview with CBS News that aired on Sunday.

In the U.S., logistical delays and vaccine shortages have meant only a small fraction of the population has received shots since two different vaccines became available in December.

Fauci Warns Not to Postpone Second Doses (4:07 p.m. NY)

Dr. Anthony Fauci warned Americans not to delay their second does of the coronavirus vaccine, after other health experts suggested recently there may be a benefit to pushing more people to get a first shot and possible delaying the follow-ups a bit.

“We must go with the scientific data that we’ve accumulated, and it’s really very solid,” Fauci, the top U.S. Infectious diseases specialist, said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “You can get as many people in their first dose at the same time as adhering, within reason, to the timetable of the second dose.”

Fauci said U.S. vaccine supply should improve in February and March as the “capability of manufacturing” escalates.

Germany to Extend Lockdown, State Leader Says (2:29 p.m. NY)

Germany will have to extend its lockdown when state and federal leaders meet on Wednesday to discuss Covid-19 strategy, Bavarian state premier Markus Soeder said.

Soeder, whose CSU party is part of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s governing bloc, told broadcaster ARD “it makes no sense to just call it off now” and risk a resurgence of the virus by easing restrictions prematurely.

Chancellery officials in Berlin have concluded it’s too early to ease restrictions even though infections are declining, and the lockdown is likely to be extended for two weeks, people familiar with the discussions said last week.

South Africa to Speed Up Use of J&J Shot (2:15 p.m. NY)

South Africa plans to fast-track the rollout of Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine after it showed more efficacy against a new variant that’s prevalent in more than 90% of new cases in the country, according to Glenda Gray, president of the South African Medical Research Council.

The move comes after trial data released Sunday showed that a shot developed by AstraZeneca Plc has limited efficacy against the mutation that was identified late last year. Even though South Africa received its first vaccines this month with the arrival AstraZeneca’s product, its use should temporarily be suspended, Barry Schoub, chair of the Ministerial Advisory Committee on Vaccines, said Sunday in an online briefing.

France Aims to Vaccinate 4 Million by March (2:08 p.m. NY)

France aims to vaccinate up to 4 million by the end of this month, government spokesman Gabriel Attal said in an interview on CNews, without clarifying if this target included the shots from both Pfizer and Moderna. The number of deaths due to the virus fell for a sixth day in a row to 171, according to Sante Publique France. New virus cases are still hovering around 20,000 a day. “We’re seeing a stabilization of new cases but the situation remains fragile,” Attal said.

U.K. Minister Says Over-50s Will Be Vaccinated by May (12:49 p.m. NY)

The U.K. is on track to vaccinate all over-50s by May, with almost 1,000 people a minute receiving shots during the busiest period, Health Minister Nadhim Zahawi said.

Zahawi, who is responsible for the vaccine rollout, said the rate of 979 doses a minute was reached between 11 a.m. and 12 p.m. on Saturday.

New Vaccine in Works to Fight South Africa Variant (11:59 a.m. NY)

Vaccine developers said they are working on a new shot to combat the South African strain of coronavirus after early data suggested AstraZeneca Plc’s product has limited efficacy against mild disease caused by the variant.

There isn’t yet enough information from research to show whether the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is effective at preventing severe Covid-19 cases, hospitalization and deaths, the company said in a statement.

Sarah Gilbert, leading the Oxford University-AstraZeneca vaccine program, said work was already under way to adapt the vaccine to deal specifically with the South African variant. The new shot is “very likely” to be available by autumn, she said.

Study Predicts U.S. Spread of U.K. Variant (11:37 a.m. NY)

A new study warns of “further surges” in the U.S. as the coronavirus variant first found in the U.K. likely becomes the dominant strain.

The B.1.1.7 variant is 35-40% more transmissible, the study says, and “will likely become the dominant variant in many U.S. states by March, 2021, leading to further surges of Covid-19 in the country, unless urgent mitigation efforts are immediately implemented.”

The study was carried out by a team of virologists in the U.S. in association with the Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, Calif. It echoed the same warning last month by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention about the variant’s rapid spread. The variant has been found in at least 30 U.S. states.

U.S. Cases Slow Sharply (9:05 a.m. NY)

The U.S. added 106,570 Covid-19 cases on Saturday, almost 8,000 fewer than the week’s previous low, suggesting that the declining trend in infections is continuing. While testing has slowed over the past month, according to the Covid Tracking Project, the latest number compares with an average of some 177,000 daily new cases in the U.S. over the preceding four weeks. The numbers are based on nationwide data collected by Johns Hopkins University and Bloomberg.

Another 2,778 people of Covid-related illness, bringing the U.S. toll to more than 462,000.

Norway’s Bergen to Go Into Lockdown (7:15 a.m. NY)

Norway’s second-largest city, Bergen, will go into lockdown after transmission of the South African virus variant was detected at construction sites. Shops, cafes, restaurants, gyms and museums will close, and all events will be banned in the city and two nearby municipalities for one week from 6 p.m. on Sunday.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.