Extended weather outlook from India Meteorological Department (IMD) suggests that it would take another fortnight or so for occasional rains, about which global weather models had made advance projections, to break over the country heralding another phase of unseasonal wet phase after January.
The IMD sees the rains building over the South Peninsula and growing to the rest of the country with a bias to the West (West Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan) first; and spreading out later to Delhi, parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal and North-East India from February 19 to 25.
To consolidate further
The week that follows (last of February and spilling over into March) could see the trend consolidating and covering almost all of the country including parts left out along the East in the first phase (Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha) while the North-Eastern States could stay relatively dry.
A glimpse of the unfolding weather is already on the show with a cyclonic circulation over North-East Madhya Pradesh bound for East likely setting up an interaction with the warm and moisture-laden south-easterly winds from the Bay of Bengal and producing showers over the region over the next two days.
Restless seas to the South
Isolated to scattered light to moderate rain/thundershowers with isolated thunderstorms, hailstorm and lightning is forecast over East Uttar Pradesh and East Madhya Pradesh on Friday; North Chhattisgarh and Bihar on Friday and Saturday; Jharkhand, West Bengal and Sikkim on Saturday; Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh on Saturday and Sunday; and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura on Sunday.
On Friday, a helpful trough lay extended from the Equatorial Indian Ocean to South-West Bay of Bengal off the Sri Lanka coast, promising high winds and heavy rain for Sri Lanka for the next few days. The IMD has warned fishermen of strong winds in the Gulf of Mannar and the Comorin region from Monday.
Alternating cold, wet phases
There has not been much rain over the South Peninsula after the North-East monsoon signed off last month though the ongoing winter to the North of the country is marked by the passage of weather-modulating western disturbances setting up alternating dry, cool climes and scattered to moderate rain.
The weather-making circulation over North-East Madhya Pradesh is a product of the flows dictated by a prevailing western disturbance located on Friday far to North over Jammu & Kashmir. Cold and dry north-westerly flows being diverted in have set up a cold wave over Punjab, Haryana and North Rajasthan.
As for Saturday, the forecast is for thunderstorms, lightning and hail over Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh, and with lightning over Chhattisgarh and Assam and Meghalaya. Dense fog is likely over part of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan.