If government is going to be successful in its vaccine rollout, it needs to open up the negotiation and acquisition of the vaccines to those who know the business, writes Howard Feldman.
Like most, I appreciate good symbolism.
The arrival of the first batch of vaccines from India is of course something to celebrate. Not because it will make much of a dent in terms of the required doses, but because the landing of the Emirates flight marked the beginning of the next phase of the pandemic for South Africans. A phase many other countries had entered into weeks back, but is nonetheless highly significant.
Unfortunately, pomp, ceremony and selfies aside, there is a lot more to this than a photo opportunity.
Which is why, given past experience, I remain skeptical about the ANC-led government's ability to handle the rollout.
Three months is what I think it will take for the South African vaccine rollout plan to fail.
Three months, a third wave with more dead and perhaps then government will relinquish the white knuckle control it has, and accept defeat that was always inevitable.
And they might do so, because seeking assistance will be their last hope of holding on to power. Already the country's support for the ANC is nearing a "tipping point" and there is a strong likelihood that the failure to successfully vaccinate a significant amount of the population will create a cadence that is irreversible.
I am an optimist. Normally. So much so that I am often accused of being naïve, of seeing the world through "rose-tinted spectacles" and of finding the positives when there are only negative. I even went so far as to write a book called "Smile Dammit!" which attempts to provide the skills needed to seek happiness at times of adversity. And yet even I can see that the South African vaccine rollout plan is doomed in a spectacular manner. It is a folly that will end in tears.
This is why:
- Corruption. No one trusts the process or the government. We tried to trust. When Covid hit South Africa, we believed the President when he said that there will be no stealing and looting of the funds. Because he looked sincere and tired and that he meant it. Only he didn't. And despite the magnificent strategy of dividing the ANC into two parts, the honest and the dishonest, in our hearts we know that it is one party, and they can't throw the bad stuff over the wall to the naughty side. We bought into it for a while. But not anymore.
- Lack of successful examples. Try as we might, it is impossible to find an example to use. Eskom, SAA, SABC, the Post office are some of the failures. Try as we might, it is virtually impossible to find an ANC success story.
- Simply too big a job. It's not all about the money. It is a massive job that requires significant planning, logistics and buy-in.
The answer is surprisingly simple. Get everyone involved. Open up the negotiation and acquisition of the vaccines to those who know the business. The private hospital groups, the pharmacies, doctors and the medical aids. Share the load, ease the burden and let South Africans receive the vaccine through whichever channel they are able to get it. By all means regulate it and demand a one-for-one or even one-for-two rule, where, for each vaccine acquired by the private sector, one or two are required for the more vulnerable.
Let government continue its efforts, assist where it can and do what it is able, but let a team of well-meaning, experienced South Africans get involved in acquiring and distributing the vaccine.
One person vaccinated is one less person to worry about. One person vaccinated is one person who is unlikely to place a burden on the health system. And one more person who can get back to work, who can contribute to the betterment of the country, pay taxes and aid our recovery.
I don't doubt the sincerity of the party. I don't doubt that when the President stands before the nation, that he wants to deliver. That he wants the country to get back to business and that he wants the looting to stop. I don't doubt that it pains him that so many live below the poverty line and have little access to the education, healthcare and jobs that they should.
But none of that can be addressed until the nation is protected, healthy and is back at work.
The ANC needs to relinquish control over the vaccine rollout. Our lives depend on it.
- Howard Feldman is a keynote speaker and analyst. He is the author of three books and is the morning talk show host on ChaiFM.
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