The government's tax estimates are understated rather than overstated, and it is confident of keeping the fiscal deficit in 2021-22 within 6.8%, said Tarun Bajaj, secretary, Department of Economic Affairs (DEA).
He was responding to media queries after the Budget announcements.
The government has estimated a total gross tax collection of Rs 22.17 lakh crore in 2021-22, which is lower than last year's Budget estimates of Rs 24.23 lakh crore. The government is estimated to collect Rs 19 lakh crore against its 2020-21 budget estimate of Rs 24.2 lakh crore.
Most of its collection estimates under different tax heads for 2021-22 are lower than last year's estimate except for excise collections. In GST, for example, despite the surge in monthly collections seen in last few months, the estimates for Centre's share of GST has been kept at Rs 6.3 lakh crore which is way lower than the Budget target of Rs 6.9 lakh crore for 2020-21.
The government expects the 2020-21 GST collections at Rs 5.15 lakh crore primarily because of Covid-19 and the resultant lockdown shutting down most economic activities for almost three months.
The government expects Rs 5.5 lakh crore from corporate tax in 2020-21, against 2020-21's estimate of Rs 6.8 lakh crore and Rs 5.6 lakh crore from income tax against this year's estimate of Rs 6.4 lakh crore.
Despite levying agriculture and infrastructure cess on imports of certain items, collections from customs duty is expected to be Rs 1.36 lakh crore in 2021-22 against budget estimate of Rs 1.38 lakh crore in 2020-21.
The government has also lowered budget estimate for disinvestment proceeds in 2021-22 to Rs 1.75 lakh crore against budget target of Rs 2.10 lakh crore in 2020-21.
Meanwhile, budget estimate for the nominal GDP growth rate for 2021-22 is 14.4%, 100 bps lower than what is being projected by the Economic Survey report. The economic survey has pegged India's nominal GDP growth rate at 15.4%.
When asked the reason for the difference, the finance minister said that both the estimates have been arrived at by two different institutions. She even jokingly said that may be the budget department of the finance ministry is less flamboyant than the Department of Economic Affairs.