Bolsonaro’s Future At Stake as Brazil Congress Picks New Heads

(Bloomberg) -- President Jair Bolsonaro, facing a worsening Covid-19 crisis and a sputtering economic recovery, is betting that a crucial election of congress leadership will help him push forward his legislative agenda while fending off impeachment attempts against him.

Legislators on Monday will choose the heads of both the lower house and the senate in a defining moment for the far-right president, who needs allies in those positions to help him navigate the second half of his mandate. The vote in the senate is scheduled for the afternoon, while the election in the lower house may only start in the evening.

The winners of both jobs effectively control the legislative agenda by deciding which bills go to a vote and when. The speaker of the lower house is the second in the president’s succession line, and also responsible for initiating impeachment proceedings against him.

A leadership aligned with Bolsonaro, a former Army captain, could help him push forward at least some of his pro-business reforms. It could also block requests seeking to remove Bolsonaro from office for his alleged poor handling of the pandemic. More than 60 impeachment requests have been filed to the lower house speaker so far.

The odds seem to be in Bolsonaro’s favor as the candidates he backs are likely to win in both chambers of congress. In the house, the government supports Arthur Lira, leader of a powerful and pragmatic group of centrist lawmakers who tend to offer their support in exchange for jobs in the administration and funds for their projects. Lira’s main opponent is Luiz Felipe Baleia Tenuto Rossi, who pledges to keep the house more independent from Bolsonaro.

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Rossi has the support of outgoing Speaker Rodrigo Maia. Late on Sunday, however, Maia’s own Democrats party decided to free its members to vote according to their own will, according to a statement of the party’s leadership. Lira got the upper hand in the race after he promised government jobs, influential roles in the house command and extra budgets for legislators.

Senate Race

In the Senate, Bolsonaro has sided with Rodrigo Pacheco, a centrist leader who is also expected to win. His main competitor is Simone Tebet, from the Brazilian Democratic Movement, the largest party in the house.

While all leading candidates have promised to pass austerity and tax reforms, the next heads of congress will face pressure to increase public spending just as the country posted its widest budget deficit ever due to Covid spending last year. Legislators are likely to consider a new round of financial help for vulnerable Brazilians as soon as congress resumes work later this week.

Read More: Brazil Senate Willing to Discuss New Round of Covid Assistance

Lawmakers have mentioned the possibility of extending the cash handouts that expired in December or boosting the current cash transfer program known as Bolsa Familia.

Lira and Pacheco, the candidates backed by Bolsonaro, have also made clear they are against calls to impeach the president for allegations he mishandled the response to the coronavirus crisis and delayed the vaccination. Brazil is one of the hardest-hit countries by the pandemic, with more than 9 million cases and nearly 225,000 deaths.

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