U.K. Says Covid-19 May No Longer Be Spreading Exponentially

(Bloomberg) -- The coronavirus pandemic may no longer be spreading exponentially in the U.K., according to government data suggesting the country’s third lockdown is working.

The official estimate of the “R rate” -- which measures how many people each infected person passes the virus on to -- fell to between 0.8 and 1, the results released on Friday showed. When R is above 1 the virus spreads exponentially. Last week, the R rate was estimated to be between 1.2 and 1.3.

The government said the case rates remain “dangerously high” and urged the public to keep to lockdown rules.

But the data will provide some welcome news to Boris Johnson’s government, which was forced to put the country into another lockdown at the start of January after a highly infectious new strain of the disease took hold.

The figures from the Department of Health and Social Care show the estimated R rate has fallen in all regions England since last week. In London, it fell to between 0.7 and 0.9, suggesting the disease is clearly in retreat in the capital, where hospitals are still under intense pressure.

The estimates for the R rate tally with findings from other sources. Earlier on Friday, statistics suggested the number of people in England infected with Covid-19 fell slightly in the week to Jan. 16.

Covid Infection Rates in England Fall for First Time in a Month

Johnson’s government wants to begin lifting restrictions when it has vaccinated 15 million of the most vulnerable people and their carers. But the prime minister signaled Thursday that the fast-spreading variant could mean lockdown measures are needed into the summer.

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