Above normal rainfall is likely over the South Peninsula and Central India during the ongoing week (January 7-13) while the hills of North-West India (Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand) may see below normal rain/snow, a monthly weather outlook for January issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
As for the second week (January 14-20), the absence of any active western disturbance, the principal system responsible for modulating/amplifying weather over North-West India, would sustain below normal rain/snow while a fresh easterly wave, its counterpart system in the South, may cause normal to above normal rainfall over South India.
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Prevailing western disturbance
Similar weather is predicted to continue for the third week (January 22-28) with drier climes over the hills of North-West India while above normal rainfall is forecast over extreme South-East Peninsular India (mainly Tamil Nadu).
This (Friday) morning, the IMD said that a prevailing western disturbance situated over West Afghanistan may trigger isolated rain or snow farther to the East over the hills of North-West India and isolated rain over the adjoining plains of Punjab, Haryana, North-East Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh.
No significant weather is expected over North-West India during the 5-6 days that follow. In the South, cyclonic circulations each over the South-East Arabian Sea and South Tamil Nadu coast may cause fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls and moderate thunderstorm and lightning over the South Peninsula.
Trough in South persists
Separately, the persisting trough in the easterlies extending from the Karnataka coast to Maharashtra coast is forecast to spawn isolated to scattered rainfall with moderate thunderstorms and lightning at isolated places over Maharashtra during the next two days.
Thereafter, under the influence of fresh spell of easterly wave, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls may break out over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala and Mahe on Sunday and Monday. No significant rain is likely over the rest of the country until January 13.
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Skymet Weather outlook
Private forecaster Skymet Weather said that rainfall activity scaled up over the South Peninsula on Thursday. Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka and Rayalaseema recorded moderate to heavy rain and shower activities at many places. Many January rainfall records have been broken in these southern States.
For instance, Mangaluru received 5.6 cm of rain, the highest for a 24-hour period as well as the month during January. The previous 24-hour rainfall record for the coastal city is 2.3 cm on January 21 in 1994. Monthly average rainfall for Bengaluru to the South-East for the month of January is just 1.2 mm.
Coimbatore in Tamil Nadu saw a heavy 11.3 cm during 24 hours with the all-time record being 33.4 cm on January 3 in 1985 and the monthly record, 6.4 cm in 1985, and the average monthly rainfall, just .75 cm. Chitradurga in Karnataka missed the 24-hour record of 10.4 cm recorded on January 21, 1918, by only a whisker. The monthly rainfall record here is 10.7 cm in January 1918.
Karipur (Kozhiode) Airport in Kerala recorded 11.7 cm while Punalur had 6 cm during the 24 hours ending on Thursday morning. The other significant rainfall amounts during this period are Parangipettai-6.7 cm; Puducherry-6.6 cm; Meenambakkam -4.7 cm; Cuddapah-4.7 cm; and Thrissur-4.3 cm.