It's 2021 already, and Bollywood is hoping that the worst is behind them. With only a handful of successful theatrical releases in 2020 and with OTT taking precedence during the novel coronavirus pandemic, distributors and exhibitors have been the worst hit in the cinematic food chain. To add to that, the returns that potential mega-budget films - there's Salman Khan's Radhe: Your Most Wanted Bhai, Akshay Kumar's Sooryavanshi, Ranveer Singh's 83 and Aamir Khan's Laal Singh Chaddha - will generate at the box office this year are as unpredictable as the fate of any film at the ticket windows - hit or flop, only time can tell.
So, this time too, only time can tell whether the megastars, like numerous times before, will be able to draw the audience and score big with their movies at the turnstiles that haven't revolved to full capacity in over nine months now.
It is no secret that along with a billion-plus people in the country, even the box office was under lockdown for the better part of the bygone year. It has now been more than two months since theatres have reopened, with ample precautions in place, but the deserted ticket counters are a testament to the fact that the avid movie-going audience is yet to recover from the trauma and the side-effects that the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic has caused. However, with the start of the new year and the resumption of shooting for several big-ticket projects, Bollywood is eyeing to make a gutsy comeback.
"The charm of the big screen can never fade," asserts trade analyst Taran Adarsh, "and the audience will waste no time in thronging the cinemas in huge numbers once the safety measures are in."
When asked about the uncertain box-office prospects of the films lined up for release in 2021, Taran Adarsh says, "2020 was a catastrophic year for the industry and, while we may have pressed the reset button, the box office is yet to step out of the ICU. Any good film, irrespective of its star value, will manage to find favour with the paisa-paying public. But, a host of big-ticket releases like Sooryavanshi, 83, Radhe, RRR and Maidaan will have to pave the way for the rest to follow suit."
While the coronavirus pandemic has brought the theatres to an unprecedented standstill, it has also, in fact, gone on to ruin the culture of film viewing within the subcontinent and beyond. Film producer and trade analyst Girish Johar explains, "The tradition of watching movies on the silver screen is an anchor-activity and a lot of other activities are simultaneously linked to a movie outing in India. So, while we do need superstars like Salman Khan, Akshay Kumar, Aamir Khan, Ranveer Singh and Shah Rukh Khan to help the box office flourish and entertain a now socially detached cinema-going audience, movies that thrive on great content will also help in the rejuvenation of the ticket counters, irrespective of the star power."
When asked if the mega releases could still leapfrog the 100-, 200- and the 300-crore mark at the box office as easily as they could during pre-Covid times, trade expert Komal Nahta reasons, "If the new strain of the coronavirus is successfully curtailed and things go as planned, then, by the end of March, a 100 per cent occupancy in theatres pan India could again be a possibility, which will then duly translate into the kind of box office figures that we may have never seen before. Provided, of course, that the vaccine is effective."
If Komal Nahta believes that the trade is banking on tentpole movies like Sooryavanshi, 83 and Radhe to set the ball rolling, he also doesn't rule out the possibility of mid-budget films succeeding in making their presence felt in the post-lockdown period.
As the hopeful trade circuit waits with bated breath to find out the fate of the mega releases later this year, the audience may just find the whole exercise of going to the cinema halls trifling. After all, the pandemic is far from over and while the promise of an effective vaccine shines upon us, it is not time-bound. Also, it doesn't help that the last two films of bankable box office stars like Akshay Kumar (Laxmii) and Varun Dhawan (Coolie No 1) have failed to impress the OTT viewers. Therefore, it may just be a situation wherein the audience is not ready to take that leap of faith to watch a Khan, Kumar, Devgn or Roshan in the theatres just yet.
Amid all this, the trade circuit and the film industry are hoping against hope to see a house-full board placed outside the nearest cinema halls, sooner than later.