Copper was the best performing base metal in 2020 giving a return of about 34 per cent on the Multi Commodity Exchange. The recent leg of rally has been since mid-October where the January futures contract rose from about ₹500 and closed at ₹595.2 last Friday. But notably, the contract had hit a high of ₹618 before a couple of weeks before moderating to ₹595.
What makes us believe that the latest drop in price is a correction rather than a trend reversal are – the contract has strongly bounced off the support band of ₹595 and ₹600, the price is now back above the 21-day moving average and the downward move barely retraced 23.3 per cent Fibonacci retracement level. Considering these factors, as long as the price stays above ₹595 and ₹600, the inclination can be towards an up-move.
But technical indicators like the relative strength index (RSI) and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) calls for caution. While the RSI has come down off its recent highs, the MACD has been tracing a downward trajectory since past two weeks. However, they still remain in the positive territory. Traders can wait for the contract to rally past ₹610 i.e., go long above ₹610 with stop-loss of ₹595. Above ₹610, it can potentially cross over ₹618 and head towards ₹625.