Oli dissolves Nepal parliament amid feud within ruling Communist party

NEW DELHI: Faced with growing discontent against his leadership and factional feuds within the ruling party, Nepal’s prime minister K P Sharma Oli effected a constitutional “coup” on Sunday by suddenly dissolving the House of Representatives. President Bidya Bhandari announced the dissolution, setting the stage for fresh elections in May 2021.
Oli faces a determined challenge from Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’, who is also the executive chair of the ruling Nepal Communist Party and a former PM. Seven ministers who are close to Prachanda and another former PM, Madhav Nepal, resigned protesting Oli’s move, which may face a legal test.
India has maintained silence over the development with top-level government sources saying it is Nepal’s internal matter, but it is watching the unfolding events closely, given the testy relations with Nepal in the past year. The turn of events may not please China either as its ambassador in Kathmandu has been labouring to keep the NCP united.

Oli faces a determined challenge from Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’, who is also the executive chair of the ruling Nepal Communist Party and a former PM. Seven ministers who are close to Prachanda and another former PM, Madhav Nepal, resigned protesting Oli’s move, which may face a legal test.
India has maintained silence over the development with top-level government sources saying it is Nepal’s internal matter, but it is watching the unfolding events closely, given the testy relations with Nepal in the past year. The turn of events may not please China either as its ambassador in Kathmandu has been labouring to keep the NCP united.

In fact, it might be in Oli’s interests to keep ties with India on an even keel when he is dealing with in-house opponents. Oli has asked for security forces to stay on alert, after protests broke out in Kathmandu against the move. As of now, however, he may have an advantage as the president has announced poll dates.
According to Indian observers, Oli is not in any political danger unless the Supreme Court rejects his move. Nepal’s 2015 constitution doesn’t actually have a provision for dissolution of parliament – which has a fixed term – but there may be a way to get around that, sources here said.
That would give Oli a free hand for the next six months, and he could extend it for another six months. The Kathmandu Post said in its editorial comment: “Oli had, for quite some time, been facing a legitimacy crisis within the ruling Nepal Communist Party since he had lost the majority, as the faction led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Madhav Kumar Nepal and Jhala Nath Khanal had been asking for his resignation owing to his poor governance and authoritarian impulses.”

The matter could be contested and moved to the Supreme Court. But observers in Kathmandu said the court would likely rule in Oli’s favour. Oli enjoys an over two-thirds majority in the parliamentary party, so he is not under any real threat. Besides, some members of the Prachanda group — industry minister Lekha Raj Bhatta and home minister Ram Bahadur Thapa — have refused to resign.
The principal opposition party, Nepali Congress, remains in a state of disarray, with leadership and organisational troubles. Janata Samajbadi Party, the Madhesi party newly formed from the merger of Samajbadi Party Nepal and Rastriya Janata Party, is also fighting leadership battles and is unlikely to take on Oli.
Politically, therefore, Oli doesn’t have any meaningful opposition. India and Nepal have been at odds since the map-making controversy last year, as the Oli government moved to amend the Nepalese constitution to show Indian territories as Nepalese. This led to several months of frosty ties between India and Nepal, at a time when Kathmandu was actively courting China, and India and China were in a stand-off in eastern Ladakh.
It took a phone conversation between Oli and Narendra Modi to break the ice on August 15 this year. Since then, India has separately sent RAW chief Samant Goel, Army chief Gen M M Naravane and foreign secretary Harsh Shringla to Kathmandu.