India vs Australia: Any Win Down Under Will Help India Secure Place in WTC Final

India will clash against Australia in the high voltage and hugely anticipated four-match Test series starting with the Day and Night Test at the Adelaide Oval from the 17th of December. Apart from the prestige associated with the Border-Gavaskar Trophy and the recent history between the two teams, the series assumes huge significance because of the altered ICC World Test Championship (WTC) format, which had to be tweaked due to the cancellation/postponement of matches due to the Covid-19 pandemic outbreak.

According to the modified rules, the WTC rankings will be determined only from the matches played according to the percentage (PCT) of points won out of the total number of points contested.

For Example: 120 points are up for grabs in the series against Australia. If India win the series 2-1 with one draw, then they would have earned 30 x 2 = 60 points for the wins and 10 for the draw = a total of 70 points for the series. Thus, India's PCT = 70/120*100 = 58.33%.

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As things stand currently, India has contested for 480 points and earned 360, so their PCT is 75%.

The new rules, although fair and necessary due to the ongoing situation, have affected India's chances adversely. According to the original system, India would have been at the top of the points table with a total of 360 points followed by Australia (296 points) and England (292 points). But now, India has dropped to Number 2 with 75 PCT after Australia which has 82.22 PCT.

How Big is the India vs Australia Series w.r.t. WTC?

The plain and simple answer is HUGE! New Zealand swept the two-match series against West Indies and that has made them a serious challenger for the top two positions. If they also beat Pakistan 2-0 at home, they will get to 70 PCT.

India have two marquee series - the one which starts tomorrow against Australia and the home series against England early next year. Assuming New Zealand sweep the series against Pakistan, India's best chances of ensuring a position in the final will be to win at least 5 of the 8 Tests to cross 70 PCT - one against Australia and all 4 against England - both of which are realistic possibilities.

They can also finish in the top two by a combination of wins and draws.

If India lose 4-0 in Australia and win 4-0 against England, they end with 66.67 PCT. If India sweep the home series against England but lose 2-0 in Australia (with 2 draws) they end with 500 points and 69.44 PCT which could be disaster for India.

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Another realistic possibility is that India draw level in Australia (1-1 with 2 draws) and win 3-0 (one draw) against England - this would mean a total of 150 points which will take India's total points to 510 with a PCT of 70.83.

There are a number of such permutations and combinations still possible but one thing is for certain. Any win in Australia will go a long way for India to seal a place in the WTC Final at Lord's in June 2021.

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