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Opinion: Eleventh-hour bid to unblock Brexit as Boris Johnson and EU Commission president meet over deal deadlock dinner date

The UK prime minister and Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the EU’s executive body, will try on Wednesday night to unblock negotiations over a future trade deal.

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson

AFP via Getty Images

The UK prime minister and Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the EU’s executive body, will try on Wednesday night to unblock negotiations over a future trade deal, and counter a wave of pessimism at the prospect of a “no-deal” Brexit at the end of the year.

  • Britain will leave the European single market on December 31 and the failure of negotiators to come to an agreement after ten months of talks have increased the prospects of a chaotic exit.
  • An agreement will not be concluded by the two leaders tonight, but they could jointly decide that negotiators still have a few days to try find a compromise on the two major stumbling blocks: Fishing rights in UK waters and the necessity for a regulatory “level playing field”.
  • The UK on Tuesday dropped its threat to break international law and withdrew legal proposals to revise unilaterally clauses on Ireland in the “withdrawal agreement” signed last year before the country formally left the EU.
  • London’s hopes to drive a wedge between the remaining 27 EU members were dealt another blow when a German spokesman claimed on Tuesday that “the idea that there are differences between Merkel and Macron on this is just a figment of the Brits’ imagination.”
  • France has threatened to veto a deal that would run counter to its interest, but European Affairs minister Clement Beaune has since then acknowledged the need for  “compromises” on France’s initial hardline stance on fisheries.
  • The UK government is adamant that negotiations, should they resume, should not last beyond the end of the year, while the EU side is more flexible on the timetable.

The outlook: Fears are rising on the EU side that Johnson may have made up his mind already, for domestic political reasons, to crash out of the EU. The Brussels dinner might be “just a necessary step in the framing of the blame game for a ‘no deal’ outcome,” former UK ambassador to the EU Ivan Rogers told Politico’s London Playbook.

The risk is that rightly or wrongly, the feeling among Europeans that the UK no longer really wants a deal could in turn lead European negotiators to give up on efforts to accommodate the UK’s requests with new concessions.