Operation All-Out in Kashmir: Terrorists Ditch Old Methods, Adopt New Ways to Survive

Terror groups change their modus-operandi continuously. A significant change was observed after the start of “Operation All-Out”. They are now adopting unique ways to continue their activities. We can say that they are changing their ways to survive.

Few points to mention here –

1. Terrorists are now using narcotics channel for the supply of warlike stores, a thing which was never seen in the past.
2. They are facing difficulties in new recruitments.
3. Their availability of arms and ammunition is drastically reduced.
4. Earlier there were no pre-conditions put before the new recruits but now they must arrange their own weapons after snatching/stealing from Police or other security forces.
5. Today terror groups are targeting soft targets like political leaders, Soldiers on leave, Social leaders in utter frustration. This is further alienating them from the local public.

I know of a village in south Kashmir which was deemed a terror supporter till about 5 years back. Various terror groups used to get a safe haven in the village but ever since they killed one of the social leaders just because he opposed them, now the village has turned hostile. It no longer supports terrorists and does not allow them even to pass through the vicinity of the village.

Terror Financing and Terror Logistics

The most effective impact of Modi govt’s policies was seen on the logistics and support system of terrorists. Especially since August 5, 2019, it cracked down massively on the Over Ground Workers (OGWs) who were a crucial link in terror activities, terror influencers (religious preachers, most of them affiliated with Jamaat-E-Islami, who used to brew venom in the minds of the youth) and terror financiers (primarily traders and other people involved in cross-border trade) who were getting money from our rogue neighbour and getting the same disbursed to various terror outfits, stone pelters, OGWs and even political leaders for their unabated support to the terror activities.

Earlier, the major route for supply of funds, weapons and warlike stores was cross-border trade through Muzaffarabad but since August 5, 2019, this too has stopped. Further due to increased vigil on the Line of Control, the smuggling of weapons and warlike stores to the valley has reduced drastically. In frustration, terrorists have been resorting to snatching of weapons from armed forces for their use. This trend has emerged only in the last two-three years.

In recent encounters, we saw the terrorists attacking the security forces with pistols, grenades and AK series rifles. When we compare them to previous years when terrorists were using sophisticated RPGs, Medium Machine Guns, Rocket Launchers and even Mortars, the current scenario can be understood better. They indeed are facing a shortage of weapons and warlike stores.

Key Takeaways from Nagrota Encounter

The recent Nagrota encounter also reveals the same modus-operandi of the terrorists. This incident reveals five key takeaways –

1. They were carrying huge quantity of arms/ ammunition and explosives (More than their scale) which proves that the current set of terror groups are facing a shortage of warlike stored.
2. All of them were highly trained Pakistani nationals. They were specialised trainers which suggest that in the wake of the absence of terrorist trainers, they were sent to create a new wave of well-trained terror modules in the Valley.
3. They adopted the route of International Border to infiltrate where Indian Army is not present. Instead, the border is guarded by Border Security Force which is often questioned for their alleged role in narcotics smuggling in Punjab.
4. It can be easily understood that when huge consignments of Narcotics can be smuggled in India, a bunch of terrorists is not a surprise. Same modus operandi was adopted during Pathankot attacks when terrorists used the same route, and a senior official of Punjab Police facilitated their entry. They travelled in a hidden compartment made in the truck loaded with essential supplies so that the movement cannot be checked. The exact same thing was observed during the Jan 2020 encounter in which 3 terrorists were killed at the very same toll plaza.
5. Nagrota incident revealed the strong intelligence network of security forces too. They had concrete information beforehand and selected the location to intercept them well. Earlier as I mentioned that it is the strong intelligence network of security forces which resulted in the success of ongoing “Operation All Out”.

While the modus operandi of these terrorists changed, there has been a significant change in the terror recruitment pattern and stone-pelting incidents. We shall cover it in the fourth part of the series.

Amit Bansal is a Defence Strategist with keen interests in International Relations and Internal Security. He is also an author, blogger and poet.