Nagpur: Two weeks have passed since Diwali and the Covid-19 cases and deaths in Vidarbha have maintained a plateau so far. The cases and deaths have definitely increased as compared to two weeks pre-Diwali but this surge can’t be termed as second wave at all, say experts. Comparative figures also indicate the same.
Vidarbha witnessed its peak of Covid-19 during two weeks between September 14 and 28. More than 46,000 cases and 1,300 deaths were reported during this phase. Recovery rate had reduced to 74%. Later, the situation gradually started coming under control.
Many experts and even the administration was expecting sudden surge in cases and deaths post Diwali. Many had predicted that the crowd, rush, shopping, festivity, firecrackers and winter will together lead to increase in Covid-19 infection during Diwali, and the cases would be reported in the next two weeks.
“There is no sign of second wave,” said infectious disease specialist Dr Nitin Shinde. “Second wave depends on the number of susceptible population. Rather we will have multiple peaks and troughs due to winter effect and increased mobility but not second wave,” he said adding that we have evidences of more than 50 % of population being already exposed to Covid-19, which means now less population is susceptible to the infection.
Senior infectious disease specialist Dr Ashwini Tayade said that second wave is inevitable if we analyse the global statistics so far “but the magnitude of second wave depends on public behaviour”.
According to Dr Tayade, the magnitude of second wave will depend on how stringently we follow the protocols from now onwards. “We can reduce it to just smaller surges as compared to primary wave. Pandemic fatigue and festive season together have definitely given rise to lack of compliance towards Covid protection protocols. It is contributing to increase in cases post Diwali,” she said.
“We are aware about sero prevalence data. Keeping that in mind, if we are successful in protecting susceptible population which is still not exposed to Covid, we should be able to curtail the second wave,” said Dr Tayade.
Covid impact on Vidarbha
Period
Cases
Deaths
Case fatality rate
Recovery rate
Sept 14 to 28 (Peak period )
46,239
1,372
2.74%
74%
November 1 to 14 (Pre-Diwali)
11,597
220
2.72%
91%
November 22 to December 6 (post Diwali)
16,269
296
2.65%
93%
* Less than 17k cases, 300 deaths
- Due to crowds, festivity, movement during Diwali, a major surge was expected in the next 2 weeks
- Some experts had predicted second wave during two weeks post Diwali
- Had second wave hit Vidarbha, it would have led to at least 46,000 cases, 1,000 deaths
- Less than 17,000 cases, 300 deaths reported during post Diwali incubation period
- Recovery rate of 93% is highest so far while fatality rate of 2.65% is lowest so far
- If people become more casual, second wave might hit in January-February