PUNE: For the past 12 days, Pune’s Covid-19 test positivity rate has been holding at an average of 9%. The development is encouraging, said experts, who were worried about infection spikes after Diwali.
In September, shortly after the Ganesh festival, the district had registered a positivity rate as high as 20%.
However, 9% is still far from the comfortable level of below 5%, which — according to the WHO — a region has to reach for the pandemic to be considered “under control”.
Dr Subhash Salunke, the advisor to the state on Covid-19, said authorities have now been asked to further increase testing.
He said, “Currently, for the last 10 to 12 days, the positivity rate has been below 10%. The worry that cases were going to rise after Diwali has now been put to test. But this doesn't mean we can now relax. Our aim is to bring the value below 5%."
Other experts said dips in the positivity rate from two major cities in
Maharashtra - Mumbai last week recorded a positivity rate of 5% - indicated the state could expect some relief from the pandemic soon.
Dr Shashank Joshi, a member of the state Covid-19 task force said the drop in positivity rate in Pune and Mumbai was "definitely a good sign".
"I would say that if this trend holds for the next two to four weeks, we can officially declare the first wave over. The challenge after that would be stopping a second wave," Dr Joshi said.
He added, "Had there been no Diwali, positivity rates would have dipped further. But despite festival rush, readings from the last 10 days have been stable. We have sustained a soothing plateau."
Dr Joshi said testing, tracking and swift treatment still remain vital.
He said the first wave in the state had its peaks mid-May, mid-June and after Ganesh festivities in September. He cautioned against mass gatherings and called on local authorities to limit attendance at events such as weddings.
"Nearly 80% of cases came from these super-spreader events," he said.
Dr Salunke too said if current trends hold, Pune could see sharper declines in key values by December-end.
He said there have been no major policy recommendations for Pune yet. "There were discussions on increase in no-mask fines. But we haven't had a meeting with deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar to discuss new strategy. So we will continue to focus on testing and early detection. This will also help us bring down the Covid mortality rate to below 1%," he said.