We are only in the middle of current bull market, JPMorgan strategists said.
Tauseef Mustafa/Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesAfter sweeping to new records on Friday, U.S. stocks were set to fall at the start of the week.
The records came despite weak November jobs data, as investors were buoyed by hopes of another COVID-19 financial-aid package from Congress. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
In our call of the day, JPMorgan
JPM,
The investment bank’s global markets strategy team said there was a clear consensus when it came to year-ahead trading themes, but urged investors to seek out less-crowded trades. They said the ‘long equities’ theme was crowded tactically and prone to a correction in January.
Elevated positioning by momentum traders and rebalancing flows by balanced mutual funds and pension funds posed some downside risk into year-end, they added in a note to clients. However, over the medium term, the long equity trade appears less crowded and closer to average than overbought levels.
“Thus any equity correction in the near term would represent a buying opportunity as in our opinion we are only in the middle of the current bull market.”
With the consensus view rarely playing out in its entirety, JPMorgan urged traders to scale exposures to avoid an “overly concentrated portfolio.” One way of doing this was by limiting exposure to the most crowded trades, which currently include short the U.S. dollar vs. cyclical developed market currencies and bullish positions on copper and bitcoin, as well as overweight non-U.S. equities vs U.S. stocks.
But the strategists said, “luckily” there were several less-crowded consensus trading themes, including overweight emerging market equities against developed market equities, and long gold and oil. Favoring value stocks over growth ones at an individual stock level was also a less-crowded consensus trade.
The chart
This chart from BDSwiss shows that the week to Dec.1 was the fourth- straight week of a reduction in ETF (exchange-traded fund) holdings of gold
GC00,
The markets
U.S. stocks slipped lower early on Monday, with the S&P 500
SPX,
The buzz
The U.S. is preparing new sanctions on at least a dozen Chinese officials in response to Beijing’s crackdown on dissent in Hong Kong, Reuters reported.
President Donald Trump said on Sunday his personal attorney Rudy Giuliani has tested positive for COVID-19. Giuliani has been traveling the country in an effort to fight Trump’s election loss.
Networking-hardware company Cisco Systems
CSCO,
Shares of Eastman Kodak Co.
KODK,
Chip manufacturer Intel’s
INTC,
XPeng
XPEV,
Airbnb plans to boost the proposed price range of its initial public offering to between $56 and $60 a share, from $44 to $50, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday. The new range would value the vacation-rental online marketplace at up to $42 billion on a fully diluted basis.
Plane maker Boeing
BA,
Chinese exports jumped 21.1% in November, accelerating from 11.4% in October.
Random reads
Monolith discovered on Isle of Wight, similar to those found in the U.S. and Romania.
A shortage of short shorts leaves fans of electric-car maker Tesla
TSLA,
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