Nagpur: After a seven-week low in
Covid positive
cases as well as
deaths, the last two weeks of
November witnessed a rise.
Experts have predicted continuation of cases in
December, and a possible spike from the second week of January.
November recorded 8,979 cases which was 52% of the cases registered in October and five times less compared to cases in September.
After 5-6 weeks of peak, from the third week of August till the end of September, cases started to decline from the last week of September and the trend continued in October. The low continued till the first two weeks of November. The daily average of tests was 4,532 and positive cases were 269 in the first week followed by 3,941 tests and 243 cases in the second week.
The number of tests increased to 4,872 per day and cases to 285 in the third week followed by 6,425 tests and 378 cases in the last week.
Same was the case with deaths. The district registered 269 fatalities in November which was 43.53% of the deaths registered in October and 5 times less compared to the number in September.
The daily average of deaths came down to 9 in the first week of November and 7 in the second. The number increased to 10 per day in the last two weeks.
“Cases are likely to increase in December and January as the pandemic is expected to spike during winter and reduce in summer. Another issue is people not following guidelines like wearing masks, maintaining social distancing, avoiding crowds etc,” said consultant physician and intensivist Dr Nikhil Balankhe.
People delaying diagnosis and admission is another major worry. “The situation improved a lot in October and during the pre-Diwali period in November. Post-Diwali, many
patients were found to be in a critical condition. Timely
testing and treatment can control deaths,” he added.
Infectious diseases specialist Dr Nitin Shinde said, “Cases are either likely to go down or remain static in December. Cases may probably spike after the second week of January.”
Experts feel that chances of multiple peaks within a short span of time are likely. “During the first wave, the district witnessed 5-6 weeks of peak. It seems that such a situation may not come again and cases may increase and decrease in small bursts,” he added.
Recoveries were more than positive cases in the first 17 days of November, but just the opposite happened in the remaining 13 days.
“The number of cases increased in the last two weeks of November mainly due to festivals. With the government anticipating a second wave, we must be alert. The administration is ready to deal with any situation. We are planning new technologies for better bed management in government as well as private hospitals in case of spike in cases. The next 15 days are very crucial. Therefore, we will intensify awareness activities and launch a special campaign to ensure that people wear masks and follow guidelines,” said municipal commissioner Radhakrishnan B.