The depression over South-East Bay of Bengal moved nearly westwards and has intensified into a deep depression (a gust away from being categorised as a cyclone) and lay centreed early this (Tuesday) morning over the South-East and adjoining South-West Bay of Bengal, about 530 km East-South-East of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 930 km East-South-East of Kanniyakumari (India). It is expected to intensify further into a cyclone later today.
According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), the prevailing deep depression may move in a west-northwestward direction and cross the Sri Lanka coast between latitudes 7.5°N and 9.0°N (Batticaloa and Trincomalee) close to Trincomalee during evening/night of tomorrow (Wednesday), move further westwards thereafter and emerge into the Comorin area on Thursday morning, and move towards the South Tamil Nadu coast.
Sri Lanka Met Department view
The Sri Lanka Meteorological Department said that the prospective cyclone may move west-northwestwards and cross the eastern coast of Sri Lanka between Batticaloa and Mullaitivu around Wednesday evening. Showers or thundershowers at times will occur over the Eastern, Northern, North-Central, and Uva provinces and in Hambanthota and Matale districts.
Heavy rainfall above 10 cm can be expected at some places over the island. Showers may occur at several places in the North-Western province. Showers or thundershowers will occur at a few places elsewhere after 2 pm this afternoon under cloudy skies. Fairly strong gusty winds (30-40 km/hr) can be expected over the Northern, North-Central, Eastern, North-Western and Western provinces of the island, it added.
Suspension of fishing activity
Meanwhile, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has persisted with the advice to fishermen for total suspension of their activity from today (Tuesday) to Friday varyingly over South-East Bay on Tuesday; over the South-West Bay and along and off East Sri Lanka coast from Tuesday to Thursday; over the Comorin area, the Gulf of Mannar and the South Tamil Nadu-Kerala coasts from Wednesday to Friday; and over Lakshadweep-Maldives area and adjoining South-East Arabian Sea on Thursday and Friday. Fishermen out at sea are advised to return to the coast by today (Tuesday).
Widespread rainfall expected
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with intense spells has been forecast over South Tamil Nadu and South Kerala. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall may break out over North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, North Kerala, Mahe, and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh. Isolated rainfall is forecast over Karnataka, Telangana, north Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema.
The Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre for Tropical Cyclones in the North Indian Ocean (RSMC), New Delhi, said that the prospective cyclone could bring heavy to very heavy rainfall or extremely heavy falls over the Kanniyakumari, Tirunelveli, Thoothukudi, Tenkasi, Ramanathapuram and Sivaganga districts on Wednesday and Thursday.
Warning for South Kerala districts
In adjoining South Kerala, a similar warning is valid for the Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta and Alappuzha districts on Thursday, while isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over South Tamil Nadu today and on Friday and over South Kerala on Wednesday and Friday.
Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, North Kerala and Mahe on Wednesday and Thursday and isolated heavy falls today and Friday. Heavy rainfall is expected also at isolated places over South Coastal Andhra Pradesh on Wednesday and Thursday and over Lakshadweep on Thursday and Friday.