Health officials in Ernakulam are anticipating a surge in COVID-19 cases in the wake of the campaign for the upcoming local body elections.
“All precautions are being taken, but since campaigning and polling constitute such a massive exercise, we cannot rule out a possible surge in cases of infection,” said Dr. Mathews Numpeli, district programme manager, National Health Mission.
Meanwhile, officials are not hazarding a guess on whether the Government Medical College Hospital (MCH) at Kalamassery can be opened up to non-COVID patients after the elections. “It depends on the prevalence of cases then,” they said.
With the active case load falling in the district, around 90 patients are admitted at the MCH, a tertiary care facility which has the capacity to treat around 300 COVID-19 patients.
Cases have been falling recently, but the elections will be like a test, he said. “If cases do not rise after the elections, then we might be able to say that the spread was controlled,” Dr. Numpeli said.
If adequate precautions are taken while campaigning, a large surge in cases can be avoided, though an increase is expected after the elections, said Dr. N.K. Kuttappan, District Medical Officer. “Attempts to enforce the COVID-19 protocol have been strengthened. At a time like this when the campaigning is on, the focus is on protecting people with comorbidities, pregnant women, and the elderly who might develop serious cases of infection. Reverse quarantine is crucial,” he said. Facilities and bed capacity in both government and private hospitals had already been augmented, and they will be adequate even in the event of a surge, he added.
The test positivity rate for Ernakulam had fallen from 11.6% in the week between November 9 and November 15, to 9.6% between November 16 and November 22. The case load has fallen from 12,192 cases on October 28 to 8,471 cases on November 27.
“So far, we have noticed compliance with norms, like canvassing without entering homes, or campaigning with smaller squads of five people each,” Dr. Numpeli said.