'Tip of the iceberg': Aviation emissions three times larger than current estimates, scientists warn

Aviation contributes to two per cent of global CO2 emissions | Credit: United
Aviation contributes to two per cent of global CO2 emissions | Credit: United

Landmark report from EU aviation regulator into non-CO2 emissions produced by jet engines sets out new financial, fuel, and air traffic measures that would target the full gamut of aviation emissions

Aviation emissions are harming the planet at a far more severe rate than previously thought, according to a major new study from the European Union's aviation regulator which examines the climate impact of a number of lesser-understood emissions produced by jet engines.

The analysis published this week by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) analysed the climate impacts of contrails - the line-shaped clouds produced by engine exhaust - in addition to the nitrous oxide (NOx), soot and sulphate particles, and water vapour relased into the atmosphere by jet exhaust alongside the well-documented carbon emissions.

Aviation emissions are warming the climate at "approximately three times" the rate associated with CO2 emissions alone, once these non-CO2 emissions are taken into account, the research warns. While different emisssions produce different effects, all upset the natural chemical composition of the atmosphere and contribute to climate change, the study explained.

Green groups have urged the European Commission to pay close attention to the report's findings and take urgent steps to step up climate regulations for the carbon intensive aviation sector, which is responsible for two per cent of global carbon emissions.

Jo Dardenne, aviation manager at campaign group Transport & Environment, said the study confirmed that carbon emissions are "only the tip of the iceberg" for the aviation sector's climate impact. "Contrails and other non-CO2 effects of aviation need to be urgently tackled to avert climate crisis," she said. "The EU should lead by ensuring air traffic doesn't bounce back to pre-Covid levels while getting planes to fly smarter routes and use e-fuels from renewable sources."

The new report argues that a string of financial, fuel, and air traffic mangement-related policies could be introduced over the next 10 years that would curb the impact of all types of aviation emissions. Policy makers could introduce a charge on NOx emissions for airline operators, it notes, while expanding the EU European Trading System's (EU ETS') rules to tax a broader range of manmade emissions, beyond the CO2, NOx, and perfluorocarbons it currently targets.

The report also advocates for fuel-related measures, singling out the mandatory use of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) and a requirement for fuel producers to adapt their production processes to reduce the aromatics in their products to ensure that fuel produces less emissions when burned as viable and effective policy proposals.

There is growing consensus over the need for a SAF mandate within the aviation sector, with low carbon kerosene alternatives seen as the only viable decarbonisation option for long-haul flights in the short- to medium-term. Just last month, industry players. called on on European governments to introduce a sustainable aviation fuel mandate from 2025 that would require airplane operators to blend a minimum share of SAF into traditional jet fuel, in a bid to boost demand for the nascent alternative fuel sector.

In addition, researchers have recommended policymakers introduce a series of airline traffic management measures that stop flight routes crossing regions that are climate sensitive - such as "ice-supersaturated areas" - in order to reduce the impact of contrail-cirrus clouds. They also suggested the introduction of a "climate charge" that takes into account the non-CO2 emissions and effects, from contrails to water vapour, soot, sulphates and NOx.

However, with "large uncertainties" lingering over how to assess the majority non-CO2 emissions, the analysis says there is a "clear need for additional research" to inform such policies and improve scientists' understanding of emissions' impacts and the relationship between emissions that have a heating effect with those with a cooling effect.

In related news, Manchester Airports Group, which owns Manchester and Stansted airports in the UK, this week launched a new prize of five years' of free landing fees to the first airline to operate a zero-emissions commercial flight.

The move, which follows a similar one-year incentive offered by Heathrow, accompanied a new pledge from Manchester Airport to become a net zero carbon airport by 2038. The company said the prize would be worth around £1.3m in waived charges for the first company to operate a zero emission flight.

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Landmark report from EU aviation regulator into non-CO2 emissions produced by jet engines sets out new financial, fuel, and air traffic measures that would target the full gamut of aviation emissions