The Varying States of Bracketology
The 2020–21 college basketball season is unique. All involved — coaches, players, administrators, media, fans — can expect postponements, cancellations and adjustments to the normal cycle of games and the postseason.
This includes the NCAA tournament, which is under the largest microscope after the abrupt end to the 2019–20 season. The 2021 tourney is on schedule, albeit at a single site.
In addition to the standard 68-team NCAA projections, Bracketology now includes 48-team and 16-team versions. The truth is there is no way to know at this point what Selection Sunday will bring, so all bases must be covered.
68 Teams
Bracket Watch
The primary adjustment from a normal year is, of course, the playing of the entire NCAA tournament at a single site. There is also no need to bracket any team away from a regional or subregional it is hosting, or attempt to give teams geographic priority based on their position on the seed list.
On the Bubble
68-Team Bracket
First Four
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16 Norfolk St.
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16 TX Southern
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12 USC
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12 Marquette
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16 Liberty
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16 F. Dickinson
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12 BYU
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12 Dayton
Region 1
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5 Houston
Region 4
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5 Oregon
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12 W. Kentucky
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13 Georgia St.
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3 Kentucky
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14 Murray St.
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7 Rutgers
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10 Saint Louis
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2 Kansas
Region 2
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6 Florida
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11 N. Iowa
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14 S.F. Austin
Region 3
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12 BYU/Dayton
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6 UCLA
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11 Miami
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3 Iowa
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14 Wright St.
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7 Michigan
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10 Seton Hall
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2 Duke
48 Teams
Bracket Watch
A condensed selection process reduces the field by 10 at-large teams and 10 automatic qualifiers (the latter of which still receive a revenue unit). The top four seeds in each region receive a bye into the second round, with four first-round games per region — 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9 — being played without fans on the higher seed’s home court.
To minimize travel, first-round pairings will be guided by geography to the greatest extent possible. And the reduced field results in only 32 teams competing at the central site. All participants must post a minimum .500 conference record — the “Lunardi Rule” — for at-large consideration.
On the Bubble
Last Four In (at-large)
Last Four In (auto qualifiers)
First Four Out (at-large)
First Four Out (auto qualifiers)
48-Team Bracket
Region 1
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1 Baylor
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8 Indiana
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5 Houston
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12 Wright St.
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6 Ohio St.
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2 Illinois
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7 LSU
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10 W. Kentucky
Region 4
Region 2
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1 Gonzaga
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8 Alabama
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9 Richmond
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4 Texas
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12 S.F. Austin
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6 Florida
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11 Georgia St.
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10 Saint Louis
Region 3
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8 Stanford
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12 Murray St.
16 Teams
Bracket Watch
The committee selects and seeds the 16 best available teams. There are no automatic qualifiers, although all non-competing conference champions receive the designated revenue unit.
To maintain some sense of national balance, conference participation is capped at four teams. And no region shall have more than one team from the same conference.