Sunday’s well-marked low-pressure area over the South-West Bay of Bengal has intensified into a depression that could intensify twice over by tomorrow (Tuesday) morning into a cyclone eyeing the Tamil Nadu-Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram for a landfall on Wednesday afternoon, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said.
Earlier this (Monday) morning, the IMD said that the very severe cyclone ‘Gati’ over the South-West Arabian Sea to the other side of the peninsula had crossed the Somalia coast on Sunday night as a very severe cyclone with estimated sustained maximum winds speeding at 130-140 km/hr and gusting to 155 km/hr, an unusually strong storm for Somalia at this time of the year. It has since weakened into a cyclone, the IMD added.
Depression off Lanka, Tamil Nadu
Back home, the depression over South-West and adjoining South-East Bay (East-South-East of Sri Lanka) was located 600 km South-South-East of Puducherry and 630 km South-South-East of Chennai. It could intensify into a cyclone by Tuesday and even a severe cyclone subsequently.
The storm is expected to move north-westwards and cross the Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around Wednesday afternoon. Under its influence, rainfall activity is likely to increase over the South Peninsular India from today (Monday), the IMD said.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) said that rain bands from the south-western flanks of the system may lash the entire northern half of Sri Lanka with some pilot bands from the northern fringes reaching Coastal Andhra Pradesh by 10.30 am this morning.
Pilot rain bands arriving
Some of them could meander into Nellore in Coastal Andhra Pradesh and West and South-West including Kadapa, Tirupathi and even the northern parts of Chennai, the ECMWF said. Heavier and better organised rain bands may check into the Puducherry-Chennai stretch by midnight or into the wee hours of Tuesday.
According to the IMD, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/ thunderstorms may be unleashed over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry from Tuesday to Thursday and over South Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Telangana on Wednesday and Thursday.
Isolated extremely heavy rainfall is forecast over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry on Tuesday and Wednesday in association with the projected landfall of the cyclone; over south Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema on Wednesday and Thursday; and over Telangana on Thursday.
High winds, rough seas
Squally weather with wind speeds of 45-55 km/hr gusting to 65 km/hr is forecast along and off the Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh coasts today (Monday). The wind speeds would increase gradually becoming 65-75 km/hr gusting to 85 km/hr in the outer season and 55-65 km/hr gusting to 75 km/hr along and off Tamil Nadu and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh coast and over the Gulf of Mannar from Tuesday (tomorrow) morning.
The wind speeds would further increase becoming 100-110 km/hr gusting to 120 km/hr (severe cyclone) along and off the North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts; 65-75 km/hr gusting to 85 km/hr along and off South Andhra Pradesh, the Gulf of Mannar and along and off the South Tamil Nadu coast from Wednesday morning into the night.
Warning to fishermen
The sea condition is currently ‘rough to very rough’ (wave heights of 8-20 ft) along and off the Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and South Andhra Pradesh coasts and over the Gulf of Mannar. It would gradually become ‘high’ (20-30 ft) along and off the Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts and ‘very rough’ (13-20 ft) along and off the South Andhra Pradesh coast and also over the Gulf of Mannar on Tuesday.
Also read: Pre-cyclone watch for TN-Puducherry coast
The sea condition would be ‘very high’ (30-46 ft) along and off the North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts and ‘high’ along and off the South Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh coasts and also over the Gulf of Mannar on Wednesday, the day of the landfall of the cyclone.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into South-West and adjoining West-Central and South-East Bay of Bengal, the Gulf of Mannar and along and off the Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and South Andhra Pradesh coasts from today (Monday) to Wednesday. Those out at sea are advised to return home.
The Chennai weather bloggers were all over Twitter busy analysing the emerging weather and the brewing cyclone and its landfall dynamics.
https://twitter.com/chennaiweather/status/1330652438429220864?s=20
https://twitter.com/chennai_updates/status/1330520606106931205?s=20
https://twitter.com/JW_Chennai/status/1330118417144307713?s=20
https://twitter.com/chennaisweather/status/1330520384358281227?s=20
https://twitter.com/Chennai_Rains/status/1330541839296786432?s=20