Last week I sat down virtually with Jared Kamrowski, the energetic and informed founder of one of my favorite airfare deal-finding sites and newsletters, ThriftyTraveler.com. Take a read through our lively, advice-laden conversation to learn about the airfare outlook for the holidays, spring break and next summer; "crazy good" fare deals; how a COVID-19 vaccination will impact 2021 trips to Europe or Hawaii and lots more.
Tell us what Thrifty Traveler is all about and what it has been like trying to peddle great airfare deals during a pandemic? How is traffic to your site? How did you survive?
We always send out deals for flights as far as 11 months in advance. But when the pandemic first hit, we shifted gears to focus entirely on travel far in the future with airfare that can be changed or canceled free — right now, we’re almost solely focused on 2021 travel. And we’ve spent a lot of our efforts helping travelers sort out the confusing world of vouchers, refunds and airline regulations as their travel plans got canceled by the pandemic.
Have fare sales been crazy good, crazy bad or not really changed that much during the pandemic? Can you provide some examples of eye-poppers you've seen from Bay Area airports?
Honestly, crazy good. When the pandemic first struck the U.S. in March, we saw some of the lowest domestic airfares we’ve ever seen, period. In the months since, domestic fares haven't dropped back to those unthinkable lows, but the deals have been more widespread, including more international deals. Most importantly, we’re finding deals on flights that are typically high demand and very expensive: winter holiday trips to the sunshine states or Caribbean, or round-trip flights to Europe in the middle of summer 2021. The most surprising and deepest discounts have been those summer flight deals to Europe. Cheap summer flights to Europe in July and August are almost unheard of.
For example, we found summer 2021 fares from SFO to Athens, Venice and Rome in the $500s, round-trip. We saw deals to the Hawaiian Islands from San Jose (SJC) for as little as $160 this winter. Transcontinental fares between SFO and NYC are as low as $176 round-trip.
Is buying tickets now for next summer a smart strategy, assuming we have a vaccine by then? Can you provide some examples of good deals for summer travel we should consider buying now?
Absolutely. We have a mantra at Thrifty Traveler: Book now, travel later. The good deals keep coming, but most airlines are also offering free change or cancellation (for a voucher) to any ticket purchased by the end of the year. That means you can snag a great deal, then cancel it down the road if need be without losing your money. There are already plenty of domestic round-trips available from both SFO and SJC for under $200 round-trip, as well as those I previously mentioned.
ThriftyTraveler.com says: Peak summer 2021 round-trips from SFO to Greece and other European countries going for just $500 round-trip.
iamjiere - Getty ImagesHave you traveled since all this started?
We stayed home for eight months, which sure is strange when travel is your job. Finally, in early November, my wife and I hopped on a cheap nonstop flight to Cancun to check out what travel to Mexico is like. The beach and outdoor restaurants feel like a safe place to be right now. Overall, the tourist beach destinations in Mexico seem to be taking social distancing and COVID precautions seriously.
When did you start to notice a turnaround in travel bookings and outlook? Have holiday bookings declined due to the recent surge in COVID cases, hospitalizations?
After a rough spring and early summer, we started feeling things slowly turn midsummer — again, mostly for booking travel far in the future. While COVID-19 is certainly heading the wrong way now, we haven’t noticed a big dip in travel demand, perhaps because the potential for a vaccine has people feeling hopeful.
What's going to happen to fares when a vaccination is available, supposedly in the winter/spring? Will demand roar back or will it creep back?
After everything people have been through with the pandemic, it’s hard to think travel demand will roar back. Airlines should be able to steadily increase the supply of flights as demand grows, which we think helps keep flight prices stable. Oil is still cheap, which is a huge win for cheap flights. The big X-factor here is competition: If airlines big or small collapse (and we’re not suggesting any will), there’s less pressure for airlines to keep airfare costs down.
Still, we’re bullish on the future of cheap flights.
It feels strange to be buying a ticket in advance to fly to Europe next summer since we are still banned from the continent ... should I buy now or wait until that restriction is lifted officially?
I’ll say it again: Book now, travel later. There’s even more uncertainty surrounding travel to Europe and some other popular destinations, but the flexible airline policies take a lot of the guesswork out of it.
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How can airlines continue to stay in business if they offer such cheap fares?
They’re not out of the woods yet, but airlines have done a lot to cut their costs and adjust to the strange new normal of low travel demand. Federal financial assistance over the summer helped a lot, too. But right now, airlines are basically all just trying to buy time until the appetite for travel returns to healthy levels. Any dollar they can get is good for business.
What's going on with flying to Hawaii? Are fares worth the extra hassles re: testing, etc.? Are people actually putting up with all that to get to paradise?
Some people are definitely willing to put up with the testing requirements, but there’s no question it has turned people off — especially given the challenges with testing in the U.S. But fares from the West Coast out to the islands remain incredibly cheap. And Hawaii is … well, it’s Hawaii.
Fares to Hawaii have dipped well below $200 round-trip from Bay Area airports this year.
Janice WeiWhat about spring break next year ... you think it will be strong due to vaccination? Should I buy tickets now? Any good examples of great deals you can share?
Spring feels like a moving target right now. Can a vaccine get delivered and distributed in time? You’ll have to ask Dr. [Anthony] Fauci that.
Still, those flexible cancellation policies mean you plan a trip (often snagging a bargain on flights) with little risk. Just be sure you aren’t booking a bunch of other nonrefundable expenses like hotels, excursions, etc.
We’re currently loving fares to locations which are available for travel right now without testing requirements, primarily beach destinations in Mexico and Costa Rica for under $400.
How long do you think airlines are going to offer relaxed restrictions on changes and cancellations?
It kind of feels to us like the genie is out of the bottle on this one. After months of offering free change and cancellation to flyers booking travel, can they really go back to the old days of charging $200-plus to someone who is sick and doesn’t want to get on a plane? They’ve already ditched change fees for good on most domestic flights (and some short-haul international routes). But I wouldn’t be surprised if we see these flexible policies extended well into 2021.
Thanks, Jared! Have a great holiday and keep up the search for those amazing fare deals!
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