PUNE: Parts of the state are likely to experience a cold spell after November 27, following a fortnight of above-normal minimum temperatures.
Anupam Kashyapi, head of weather, IMD, Pune, said, “The extended range forecast models are indicating the mercury could fall 1-3°C below normal in parts of Vidarbha, adjacent Madhya Maharashtra, including parts of Pune district, and 2-4°C below normal in Marathwada in the November 27-December 3 period. However, we have ruled out chances of cold wave conditions before mid-December in parts of Maharashtra that are prone to extremely low temperatures.”
Kashyapi said after November 27, minimum temperatures in state would be significantly lower than current trend — higher than normal since Diwali. “Till November 26, there could be a gradual fall in minimums to the near-normal level in most parts of the state because moisture in the air is depleting gradually. Dry air and no moisture are associated with clear skies, which aid temperature drop during night time,” he said.
He said, “The flow of northerly winds, entering Maharashtra via Arabian Sea and changing to north-westerly /westerly, has almost stopped now. These winds were causing marginal moisture incursion over state. Now, the state has easterly/south-easterly wind flow, which has little moisture because most of it is depleted en route since the winds come from a long distance after their origin from the Bay of Bengal. By Sunday, the moisture will reduce further, normalising the minimums to an extent. Thus, marginal fall in minimums is expected over Vidarbha and adjacent areas of the state.”
November had begun on a cold note, but minimum temperatures over the past few days had been significantly above normal. They are likely to remain 1-2°C above normal in Madhya Maharashtra but below normal by about a couple of degrees in the rest of the state till November 26.
Met department expects western disturbances to affect western Himalayan region frequently from November end. Minimums usually drop in plains and in Maharashtra after passage of a western disturbance up north. Met department expects wind pattern in parts of the state to become predominantly northerly around November- end start of December.
Kashyapi said, “December temperatures are normally on the lower side and if they dip lower than that, it could trigger a cold spell. But minimum temperatures may not fall very significantly to cause cold wave or near-cold wave conditions till mid-December.”