Biden may bode well for Afghan peace process

Lt Gen NPS Hira (retd)

Former Deputy Chief of Army Staff

THE US will reduce the number of its troops in Afghanistan from 4,500 to 2,500 by mid-January, the Pentagon announced on Tuesday. The Afghan peace process has not made any significant headway so far, except getting the warring groups to the negotiating table. The prime motivation for the US to get the Afghan government and the Taliban to talk was the election agenda of Trump. In the run-up to the elections, he went to the extent of making a statement that all US troops may be home before Christmas.

The withdrawal of US troops also fitted into Trump’s foreign policy in general, which was isolationist. It also made sense to Trump’s business instincts not to keep pouring US resources into a venture which in his perspective was nothing but loss-making. He is happy to cut out his losses and get out of Afghanistan. Trump had also chosen to abandon the good old policy of the US to promote democracies around the world. He is also not too concerned with the issue of human rights. Therefore, he does not mind the Taliban getting into a dominant position in the Afghanistan government, as long as the US troops can leave Afghanistan. His policies have been more focused on trade and economy. His emphatic effort to arm-twist President Ashraf Ghani to come to the negotiating table despite the fact that the Afghan government was not a signatory to the deal, was unfair to Ghani.

As far as the Taliban are concerned, it has been too happy to play Trump’s game because it has everything to gain by doing so. By giving a simple guarantee that the Taliban would ensure no attacks on the US or its interests from the soil of Afghanistan, Taliban could get an assurance from the US to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan. That is exactly what the Taliban had wanted all these years from the US. As far as the guarantee is concerned, Taliban may not be in a position to ensure it or it would blame any infringement of it, on the Islamic State or Al Qaeda. However, the Taliban’s rank and file may resist a deal which does not ensure implementation of the Sharia laws and dominance of Taliban in the future Afghan government structure. That is the reason why the Taliban has maintained a constant tempo of its operations against the Afghan forces throughout the peace process.

The outcome of the US elections has changed the situation for that country. Biden is likely to work towards US retaining its prominent position in the world. He will endeavour to promote a democratic government in Afghanistan, instead of a Taliban-dominated government. He is sensitive to human rights and would not like to allow a free run to the Taliban to violate the human rights of the Afghan people. Though he too has promised to the US people to get US troops home, he is unlikely to do so at a high cost, which was acceptable to Trump. He is also likely to listen to his military, which is of the opinion that the withdrawal of US troops in a hurry is squandering the gains made in the past.

It is fair to assume that Biden will attempt to strike a balance in his actions in keeping with all his priorities. Therefore, Biden’s nomination to the US presidency is bad news for the Taliban and good news for the Afghan people. At this stage, Taliban has two choices. The first is to pull its straps and continue to fight for as long as it takes to gain a dominant position. The second choice is a climbdown and to make reasonable compromises on its Islamic agenda. It is no secret that the Taliban too is tired of fighting and so are the Afghan people. It is noteworthy that in the month of September 2019, when Trump had sprung a surprise and put a stop to negotiations with the Taliban, it was seen to be much nervous. It could feel the ground slipping below its feet. The Afghan people too desire the Taliban to reach an agreement with the Afghan government, which would bring peace to the country. Further reduction of US troops at this stage is counter-productive as it emboldens the Taliban and makes Biden’s position difficult in handling the situation in future.

While the Taliban may try to put up a front to continue the fight, it too has realised that it may not be able to achieve a military victory in a reasonable time frame and that it cannot run Afghanistan without financial aid from the West. Afghanistan is strategically important to the United States. Biden is likely to force the Taliban to make difficult choices. He is likely to push the Taliban to once again feel the heat of US operations, if it does not fall in line with the US dictates. The nomination of Trump has emboldened Ghani as well as raised the morale of the Afghan National Army, which is now assured of a significant support from Biden as compared to Trump. Biden is unlikely to leave the Afghan people in a lurch because of his concerns for human rights and would endeavour to establish a democratic government in Afghanistan.

For India, it is a positive turn of events in Afghanistan. If a solution is to come about in the tenure of Biden, India is likely to see an Afghan government more inclined towards it than to Pakistan. India may have been somewhat subdued by the recent visit of Abdullah Abdullah, who privately conveyed to the Indian government to underplay its involvement in the peace process in Afghanistan. The reason for his doing so is the sharp reaction from Pakistan to any Indian moves in Afghanistan. Indeed, this is nothing new. Similar requests have come from the Afghan government in the past as well, but that is only a transitory factor. In the best of Afghan interests and our relations with Afghanistan, we need to manage this contradiction tactfully, as things are already looking up for Indian interests in Afghanistan. A solution is not around the corner and the new announcement of enhanced withdrawal has made the situation more difficult for Biden, but his election has gingered up the Afghan scenario in the right direction.