Glimmer of hope for Opposition

Zoya Hasan

Professor Emerita, Centre for Political Studies, JNU

DEFYING the exit poll predictions and popular anger against the incumbent government, the ruling NDA retained power in Bihar. In a closely fought election, the RJD emerged as the single largest party. The Left performed quite well and had they been given more seats, they would have notched up a higher tally in the elections. The Congress proved to be the weak link in the Opposition alliance. The Mahagathbandhan (MGB) and the NDA polled almost the same number of votes. However, it was the NDA which prevailed by a whisker. What does this tell us about the state of play in Bihar?

The RJD set the pitch for an issue-based election but if it can dent the majoritarian narrative remains to be seen.

The electoral narrative was set by the anger against the government’s handling of the pandemic and the returning migrants, forced to walk long distances home to escape from cities placed under lockdown imposed at just four hours notice. An estimated 32 lakh Biharis returned home even as the Nitish Kumar government insisted they must stay where they were, even threatening to stop trains before they entered Bihar. The public health emergency exposed starkly the state’s chronic unemployment problem and the failure of the government in job creation, and more broadly, the shortcomings of a neo-liberal development model (not limited to Bihar) that doesn’t focus on job creation and economic opportunities for people. This pivoted the political discourse towards livelihood issues and put employment at the centre of the poll landscape.

Even though it was not a level playing field, given the BJP’s unprecedented financial resources, control over state machinery, and huge influence in mainstream and social media, the RJD, through its energetic campaign, succeeded in drawing the nation’s attention to Tejashwi Yadav, who led a positive campaign focused on broadening his appeal and his party’s vote base by identifying development and employment as core issues. His whirlwind campaign (247 rallies in 20 days) helped the RJD put up a stiff fight against the NDA.

The political storyline changed the moment Tejashwi announced his promise to provide10 lakh jobs on the first day of his arrival in the CM’s office. It electrified the election scene as people flocked to his rallies. His central promise was basic: kamai-dawai-padhai-sinchai (jobs-medicare-education-irrigation) which cut across caste/community barriers. This steered the discourse to the material problems of life thus reinventing the RJD as a party with a more capacious agenda and one that pitches a wider political tent. The shift was reflected in Tejashwi Yadav’s redefinition of social justice — the guiding mantra of the Mandal era. The fundamental idea was to upgrade social justice to the quest for economic justice — a call that resonated across the state. The presence of the Left parties in the grand alliance provided credibility to the economic justice platform as had happened when the Left extended support to the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA-1).

Throughout this election, public discontent with the NDA regime was palpable, and, yet it prevailed. This outcome compels us to face the paradox of people continuing to repose trust and faith in the BJP even though they may be dissatisfied with their own economic condition and the insensitive government response to the pandemic.

Based on a benchmark of accountability, the BJP should have been held responsible for the harsh and unplanned lockdown it imposed on the country. However, the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) survey shows that even as people suffered badly during the lockdown, they did not blame the state or it (and certainly not the Central government). One way to explain this paradox is to explain it in terms of what political scientist Neelanjan Sircar calls the prism of vishwas — trust or belief in a strong leader. But this explanation seriously underplays the role of ideology and organisation in the making of trust. The trust that voters have placed in the Prime Minister is built up by Hindu majoritarianism as well as the party’s control of the media, money power, and its strong organisational machinery. In the event, failure to tackle the crisis precipitated by coronavirus or unemployment is neutralised by the perception that it is a pro-Hindu government which will protect ‘our’ interests and promote ‘development’ also. Thus, people ignored their own distress and suffering driven by an elusive promise of ‘development’ which supplements the metaphysical appeal of Hindutva.

By promising 10 lakh jobs to voters, Tejashwi Yadav did sway the vote, however, the attractiveness of that promise was eclipsed by the BJP’s late surge powered by the PM’s campaign in the last two phases — foregrounding the Hindutva narrative peppered with boasts of changing the special status of Kashmir, the ongoing construction of Ram temple and chanting Jai Shri Ram. The BJP’s carefully crafted strategy of polarising voters along with raising the spectre of the return of a jungle raj of the Lalu Prasad era almost certainly triggered a counter-consolidation. Breaking down the binary of social identities versus Hindutva ideology, a large section backed the BJP as the majoritarian narrative became the central idiom in these two phases. The increase in the BJP’s seat share at the expense of the JD(U) indicates the growing resonance of majoritarianism in Bihar, although less so than in Uttar Pradesh where it has found a more permanent home.

This election has catapulted the BJP to a position of dominance in Bihar politics and the RJD as the key opposition force. Tejashwi Yadav set the pitch for an issue-based election but can this constitute an alternative message to dent the majoritarian narrative remains to be seen. The Opposition has some distance to cover to match the BJP’s political reach across a wide spectrum in the northern states. Broad-based politics can facilitate forging long-term coalitions which will be critical in shaping the politics of non-BJP parties in the coming years. Bihar has shown the way for the Opposition.