After the unlocking began, economic indicators have been showing signs of improvement. For instance, companies' profits grew 26% versus an estimated -2.1% decline. Operating profits also came in above expectations while operating margins also continued to expand.
Getty ImagesA favourable balance of payments position have led to the build up in forex reserves in recent months.
Several economic indicators are showing a marked improvement from recent lows, which suggests the economy is getting back on track.
ET Wealth provides a snapshot of how key economic trends are shaping up post-Covid.
The increase in GST collections reflects the higher levels of economic activity being undertaken and business picking up with the easing of various restrictions.
NOTE: At Rs 5.59 lakh crore, total GST collection during April-October 2020 is still 20% lower than the Rs 7.01 lakh crore collected in the corresponding period of last year. Source: CARE Ratings
October witnessed an all-time high in eWay bill generation
Number of eWay bills (641 lakh) generated last month were the highest in a month since the start of the eWay bill system. E-way bills represent movement of goods from one place to another after requisite tax payment.
Source: Motilal Oswal Securities
Manufacturing index has climbed to its highest in a decade
Indian companies ramped up production at the strongest pace recorded since late-2007 as demand picked up.
Source: Motilal Oswal Securities
Automobile dispatches are at an all-time high
Auto sales (in terms of dealer dispatches) continued to improve in October 2020 as vehicle manufacturers hiked production in anticipation of strong sales during the ongoing festive season. Hyundai, Bajaj and Hero recorded highest ever sales in a month.
NOTE: Retail sales (in terms of actual purchases) of automobiles for the month remain more than 20% lower compared to the corresponding month last year.
Sharp uptick in enrolments at EPFO
Number of new EPF subscribers increased from 1.85 lakh in April to 6.70 lakh in August and exits from the subscriber base declined by more than 50%, from 5.71 lakh to 2.46 lakh during this period.
NOTE: EPFO payroll data points to recovery in job market, but figures are provisional and subject to change. Additions to payroll may not always reflect new jobs created, as some existing jobs get formalised with growth of smaller organisations. Besides, EPFO data completely ignores the informal sector. Source: EPFO
A healthy rise in exports coupled with easing of decline in imports saw the trade deficit fall since the turn of the year.
NOTE: Exports during April-October 2020-21 have registered a decline of 19% over the same period last year. After 6% uptick in September, exports declined by 5.4% in October. Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry
A favourable balance of payments position—lower trade deficit and increased capital infl ows—have led to the build up in forex reserves in recent months.
Source: RBI
India Inc beats earnings and margins estimates
Companies' profits grew 26% vs estimated -2.1% decline. Operating profits also came in above expectations while operating margins also continued to expand.
NOTE: Profitability and margins have expanded partly because of fall in input costs and reduction in wages and administrative expenses. Revenue growth remains largely subdued. Source: MOFSL | Above figures pertain to Motilal Oswal Securities coverage universe of stocks
Feku, aka Surrender Modi, has derailed the economy. After 6 years of Feku's misrule, everything is deteriorating in this country. The economic growth hits 74-year low since Independence. We have also fallen behind Bangladesh in per capita GDP and the Global Hunger Index. Remarkably, Feku achieve all these in just 6 short years which Congress and NDA-1 couldn't in 70 years. Feku has lost the legitimacy to rule this country. All in all, Feku must go. However, even if we kick him out of India today, it will still take at least a decade for his successor to undo all the damages done by Feku.
shailendranath thakur1 hour ago
This upward trend in economy is due to sudden upsurge in demand due to festivals,real test begins from this month.There is no major decrease in unemployment.If this upward trend is maintained then economy will grow.
Hemant Pisat1 hour ago
The huge country's magnanimous pent up demand is boasting current activity due to festive season. Most of the indicators are pushed to certain levels and may be positive, hope they remain post this season. A sustained period of demand is yet to show its colours, especially real estate, savings and investments are at low ebb. Spruced supply doesn't ensure demand creation, it may even choke liquidity in coming days. Wait and watch.
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