PUNE: The extreme chill would spare the city for about a week because of consecutive western disturbances affecting the west Himalayan region, but there is a possibility of a drizzle or two in the next weekend.
Anupam Kashyapi, head of weather, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune, told TOI, “Both, the medium and the extended range prediction models of the IMD have indicated that night temperature would be on the higher side in parts of central and southern Maharashtra till at least November 22 because of consecutive western disturbances affecting the west Himalayan region and the strong easterly wind flow, due to which the northeast monsoon is active.”
The minimum temperature across the state has started increasing over the past couple of days after an unusual drop in mercury earlier this week. Kashyapi said a western disturbance affecting the western Himalayan region currently would cause an increase in minimum temperature during the November 14-16 period.
“We expected a drop in minimums around November 16-17, but another western disturbance is expected to affect the western Himalayan region around November 17-18. It will keep the minimums on the higher side. Whenever a western disturbance passes, the night temperature rises. They drop once the western disturbance goes away.”
Kashyapi said the current western disturbance was expected to cause clouding and isolated rain till as far as north Rajasthan, areas of Uttar Pradesh and northwest Madhya Pradesh. “We have simultaneous strong easterly wind influence over peninsular India, which is causing moisture incursion and clouding over areas in Maharashtra, even in Pune district and the city. Clouding in the night is known to cause higher minimum temperature as clouds prove to be a hindrance in the free passage of long wave radiation from the earth’s surface into the atmosphere,” he said.
Around November 18-19, there might be an interaction between easterlies and westerlies over central and northern parts of Maharashtra, especially over Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada. As a result, the IMD has forecast clouding over Pune city and the district around November 18 to 20. It might lead to isolated very light rain in the district then.
The IMD, in fact, on Saturday forecast very light November rain for a couple of days for the city from November 19 to 21.
Kashyapi said the night temperature was expected to be in the range of 16-18°C in Pune till at least November 21-22, unlike the recent below-10°C temperature in some pockets.