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Results: Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. Delivered A Surprise Loss And Now Analysts Have New Forecasts

Simply Wall St
·4 min read

Last week, you might have seen that Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:NBIX) released its third-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.1% to US$90.45 in the past week. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$259m missing analyst predictions by 8.5%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$0.62 per share, a substantial decline on analyst expectations of a profit. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Neurocrine Biosciences

earnings-and-revenue-growth
earnings-and-revenue-growth

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Neurocrine Biosciences from 20 analysts is for revenues of US$1.31b in 2021 which, if met, would be a huge 26% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 278% to US$3.80. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.43b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.70 in 2021. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their sales forecasts and making a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 9.6% to US$126. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Neurocrine Biosciences analyst has a price target of US$161 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$90.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Neurocrine Biosciences' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues next year expected to grow 26%, compared to a historical growth rate of 64% over the past five years. Compare this to the 526 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 21% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Neurocrine Biosciences is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Neurocrine Biosciences going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Neurocrine Biosciences that you should be aware of.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com.

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