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Moody’s raised its forecast for India’s growth to -8.9% for the calendar year 2020 from -9.6% and for the coming year as well to 8.6% from 8.1% earlier, in its Global Macro Outlook 2021-22 report on Thursday.
The decline in new infections along with high recovery rates are bending the pandemic curve and allowing for further easing of restrictions on mobility, it said, adding that the test positivity rate in India has fallen below 5%.
“We therefore forecast a gradual improvement in economic activity over the coming quarters. However, slow credit intermediation will hamper the pace of recovery because of an already weakened financial sector,” Moody’s said.
Further, if these trends in the pandemic curve continue to spur greater mobility and social interactions, coupled with the development and dissemination of a vaccine, it could make the pandemic itself a less important macro factor in 2021 and 2022, it said.
The decline in new infections along with high recovery rates are bending the pandemic curve and allowing for further easing of restrictions on mobility, it said, adding that the test positivity rate in India has fallen below 5%.
“We therefore forecast a gradual improvement in economic activity over the coming quarters. However, slow credit intermediation will hamper the pace of recovery because of an already weakened financial sector,” Moody’s said.
Further, if these trends in the pandemic curve continue to spur greater mobility and social interactions, coupled with the development and dissemination of a vaccine, it could make the pandemic itself a less important macro factor in 2021 and 2022, it said.
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6 Comments on this Story
 | Tara18 minutes ago The Psychology of Money amzn.to/317sAG5 |
 | Udayakumar Shetty2 hours ago Economy is recovering much faster. We may end the fiscal with negative GDP growth of 5 to 6%, if second wave of the pandemic is managed well. |
| Vedavyasa H. Joshi2 hours ago No wonder, Moodies revised their estimates upwards, because, Indians are hard working people, especially the middle & high income groups of people. It is also due to sensible leadership of Modi to steer economy well in such difficult time. He managed challenge of Corona well. Gradually, several countries & international economic experts have realized good handling of Corona crisis in India. Another 3 to 6 months are enough to make economy come to full power. Several green shoots indicate it. Stock market is the early indicator of it. Freshly registered Corona affected people has come down drastically. Prospects of several Corona vaccines by February 2021 has also brightened. World is looking forward to India to recover & supply vaccine to all countries of the world. |