Investors in Marinus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNS) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.4% to close at US$14.60 following the release of its third-quarter results. Statutory losses were much smaller than expected, at just US$0.51 per share, even though revenues of US$171k missed analyst expectations by a remarkable 55%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
View our latest analysis for Marinus Pharmaceuticals
Following the latest results, Marinus Pharmaceuticals' ten analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$5.56m in 2021. This would be a huge 3,149% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 38% to US$1.98. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$4.66m and losses of US$2.12 per share in 2021. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a sizeable increase to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated loss as the business grows towards breakeven.
Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$28.78, implying that their latest estimates don't have a long term impact on what they think the stock is worth. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Marinus Pharmaceuticals analyst has a price target of US$35.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$20.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting revenues to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Marinus Pharmaceuticals. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Marinus Pharmaceuticals going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Marinus Pharmaceuticals (at least 2 which are a bit unpleasant) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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